00:00:07 Jared Blickre
Heading into the second Trump administration, the thinking among investors was, the new president would lighten regulation and revive deal making, a major plus for US banks. But recent reality is definitely poured cold water on that optimism. I’m Jared Blickre, host of Stocks and Translation. So let’s do a reality check of big financials so far under the Trump administration. Uh I’m going to start here with the sector action, and I have in white and in green, as I’ve been doing for the last week, I have the election to the inauguration. So these were the expected expectations coming in to mid January to that inauguration event. And then here in green is what we have had since. And you can see consumer discretionary was leading 13%. Financials, what we’re talking about today, they were number two, up 7 and a half percent. But as of Friday, they were down 12%. As of today, uh I’ve lost track, but uh significantly more. Consumer discretionary and all the other sectors down too. Um I have all the sectors in here, but I do want to move on. You can see a lot of these like healthcare, consumer staples, and real estate not up or down very much, as much as the others in this time frame. We got to get to rates because here I have the US 13-week treasury rate. So this is a T bill. This is basically what tracks the short end of the curve. This is what the Federal Reserve is doing. Then we have the US five-year yield. Then we have the US 10-year yield and the 30. And the 10 and the 30 are more important. Really interesting to see how they jumped up in anticipation of this new presidency and how they have crashed now. That is because we are now in recession fear territory, and that has an opposite effect on the market. I want to get to the banks here finally, and we can see Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Bank of New York Melon, BlackRock, all giving back all of their gains in most cases, sometimes even more. Jamie Diamond out this morning with a shareholder letter saying, “The recent tariffs will likely increase inflation and are causing many to reconsider the possibility, a greater possibility of a recession.” So for more jargon busting deep dives, new episodes on Tuesdays and Thursdays on Stocks and Translations on Yahoo Finances website or wherever you find your podcast.
