- Gold price gains back on initial losses and trades back above $3,325 on Friday.
- The US-UK trade agreement is seen only half-baked, not a ‘full and comprehensive’ trade deal as President Trump announced.
- Gold sees safe-haven recovery ahead of the high-stakes China-US meeting over the weekend.
Gold (XAU/USD) pops over 0.5% on Friday and heads back above $3,325 at the time of writing. The precious metal’s price is edging higher as markets call the trade deal announced on Thursday between the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) an ’empty shell’. The US-UK trade deal gives the US better market access and a faster customs process for exports to Britain, but falls short of a “full and comprehensive” agreement. At the same time, 10% tariffs will remain in place and the UK will be forced to take $10 billion worth of orders with Boeing, Bloomberg reports.
The fact that this initial trade deal for the US is so ill-conceived raises big questions and uncertainties just ahead of the China-US summit that is set to take place in Switzerland over the weekend. In the run-up to that meeting, the Chinese Minister of Commerce has again expressed its demands that tariffs must be unwound before trade talks can occur. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump hinted overnight that people should head out and buy stocks now, Reuters reports.
Daily digest market movers: US puts up 60% tariffs on weekend performance
- President Trump also said overnight that he believed that the trade talks this weekend with China would result in tangible progress. The president said he would consider lowering the 145% tariff he has imposed on many Chinese goods if the discussions went well. Beijing, meanwhile, reiterated its calls for the US to cancel unilateral duties on China, Bloomberg reports.
- People familiar with preparations for the talks, which are due to begin in Geneva on Saturday, led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, say the US side has set a target of reducing tariffs below 60% as a first step that they feel China may be prepared to match. Progress in two days of scheduled discussions could see those cuts being implemented as soon as next week, they said, Bloomberg reports.
- “Buying Gold on dips is still in vogue, which is so far limiting the downside moves despite safe-haven demand drying up to a degree on the US-UK trade deal,” KCM Trade Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer said, Reuters reports.
Gold Price Technical Analysis: Trump might be too sure
The stakes just got high for this weekend, after President Trump told people to go out and buy stocks when talking about the US-UK trade deal, as it would be the first of many. I’m unsure if the suggestion was linked to the US-China negotiations this weekend, though Trump is clearly seizing this one-deal event as a jumping board to get momentum going. However, questions all around should support the safe haven demand due to growing uncertainty.
First hurdle on the upside this Friday comes in at the daily Pivot Point at $3,336. Should more follow-through appear later in the day, look for the intraday R1 resistance at $3,384. The R2 resistance upside target at $3,462 might be a bit too far for today’s price action.
On the downside, the S1 support at $3,258 is the first line of defence. The watchdog level, which is near $3,245, is a much stronger floor from a technical standpoint. In case it does break under pressure, $3,210, which is the S2 support, should come into play.
XAU/USD: Daily Chart
US-China Trade War FAQs
Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
