Eight Republicans in the Senate are about to decide whether President Trump gets his $4.5 trillion tax plan or watches it collapse days before his July 4 deadline.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has two days to flip enough “no” votes to pass the bill and avoid a full-scale embarrassment for the White House. He’s already lost two senators. One more, and it’s over.
Thune’s job right now is a nightmare. He has 53 Republicans in the chamber. That gives him a razor-thin cushion — only three defections can be allowed, and even that’s counting on Vice President JD Vance to break the tie.
But on Saturday night, two names peeled off: Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky. Both voted against starting the debate on the bill. And both look set to vote “no” again. “This is not what I signed up for,” Paul said, referring to the bill’s size and its $5 trillion debt ceiling hike.
Trump slams Tillis as two senators bail, more threaten to follow
After the vote, Trump fired off attacks on social media, targeting Tillis directly. “Talker and complainer, NOT A DOER!” he posted, adding fuel to the already public divide. On Sunday, Tillis made things worse for Thune when he announced he wouldn’t seek reelection. That means he doesn’t need to care about Trump’s threats. He also made it clear he’s likely voting no again.
That leaves Thune trying to hold together the rest of the party while fighting off pressure from both ends. On one side, moderates like Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Senator Susan Collins of Maine want major changes.
They’re pushing back against the deep Medicaid cuts written into the bill. The Congressional Budget Office warned that 11.8 million Americans could lose insurance over the next decade if the proposed changes go through. Murkowski said the damage from that alone “could cost Republicans their seats.”
They’re also asking to slow down the rollback of tax credits tied to solar, wind, and clean energy projects — incentives that boosted jobs in their states. “These phaseouts are happening too fast,” Tillis argued in a private meeting on Sunday. “That’s not what we agreed to.”
But hardliners aren’t budging. Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin has already drafted an amendment to speed up the Medicaid cuts instead of softening them. He claims to have backing from Senator Rick Scott of Florida, Senator Mike Lee of Utah, and Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming.
Their proposal will be introduced during the overnight voting session expected to start Sunday night or early Monday. That’s when this bill either moves forward or collapses entirely.
Senate chaos threatens July 4 deadline as House Republicans raise concerns
While Trump pushes for speed, demanding the bill be passed by Independence Day, the full legislation still has to clear the House of Representatives. That won’t be easy. Speaker Mike Johnson is already under pressure from Republicans who don’t like parts of the package. Some are complaining that the tax cuts are too generous, while others say the $1.2 trillion in spending cuts don’t go far enough.
Here’s what’s in the bill: a massive extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts, plus fresh breaks for tipped workers, hourly employees, seniors, and people buying new vehicles. That’s where the $4.5 trillion number comes from. But the spending cuts are what’s tearing the GOP apart. Some want deeper slashes. Others want to protect Medicaid, renewables, and healthcare coverage.
And the public isn’t sold either. A Pew Research poll shows that 49% of Americans oppose the bill, with only 29% in support. The remaining 21% say they aren’t sure. Those numbers are making moderates nervous, especially the ones up for reelection in 2026.
Still, the Senate is preparing for a showdown. Lawmakers are staying overnight in the Capitol on Sunday into Monday. If Thune can strike a deal with the holdouts and keep the Johnson faction from blowing it up, the Senate could pass the bill by Monday.
But even then, it goes to the House, where more resistance is expected. And Trump, now sitting in the White House, is growing impatient. If lawmakers change the bill even slightly, they’ll miss the July 4 target and get hit with another wave of presidential fury. “No excuses,” Trump warned last week. “Deliver it on time.”
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