Toncoin (TON), the native cryptocurrency of The Open Network, is in a consolidation phase in a still uncertain global market context. As of July 7, 2025, at 09:31 CET, TON is priced at 2.83 USDT (source: CoinGecko), down by -3.4% on a weekly basis but still positive by +14.6% compared to a month ago. The market cap stands at 6.99 billion USD.
On the macro front, investor sentiment remains cautious due to recent geopolitical turmoil in Asia and USA-China tensions over technological and monetary policies, as well as the anticipation of the US presidential elections. In the crypto sector, the industry is influenced by the volatility of Bitcoin after its latest halving and the growing EU regulatory attention.
Technical Analysis and Historical Trend of Toncoin (TON)
Key data:
- Price: 2.83 USDT
- Market cap: 6.99 bln USD
- Volume 24h: 773 mln USD
- RSI daily: 48 (neutral zone, without overbought/oversold)
- MACD daily: near zero (siege between bull and bear)
- Average volatility (ATR 14d): 0.18 USDT (average daily range)
- Recent max level: 3.16 USDT (All-time high: 4.95 USDT, April 2025)
- Recent monthly low: 2.34 USDT
- Consolidation range (Box range): 2.65 – 3.12 USDT for about three weeks
- ADX (14d): 19 (weak trend but potentially strengthening)
- Volumes: slightly increasing, but no volumetric breakout in the last 5 days
- Cluster of volumes/POC: 2.78–2.90 USDT (area of maximum exchange on daily timeframe)
Technical Patterns and Lateral Movements: The price action of June-July shows a clear horizontal range between 2.65 and 3.12 USDT, with frequent tests of both ends. There are no marked reversal patterns (no clear head and shoulders or ascending/descending triangles), but the compression of volatility fuels the expectation of an imminent breakout.
The RSI on the daily timeframe, stable between 42 and 53, indicates a lack of excesses – the market is accumulating. The MACD, practically flat in the neutral zone, confirms the absence of a clear directional momentum.
On the weekly chart, the main support structure is located at 2.40–2.50 USDT, the true “line in the sand” defended by buyers since last May. The key resistance remains at 3.12–3.18 USDT, beyond which spaces would open up towards the recovery of historical highs. The volumes, concentrated in the 2.78–2.90 USDT box, reflect the presence of many open positions: a clear break of this level could catalyze impulsive movements.
Latest breakout/breakdown: The last breakout confirmed by volumes dates back to the second half of June, with a rapid move from 2.34 to 3.16 USDT (+35% in 10 days), then followed by a marked phase of lateral correction. Since then, there have been no significant breakouts.
Visual snippet of the main levels on the daily (ladder):
- Primary daily support: 2.65 USDT
- Daily/weekly checkpoint: 2.78–2.90 USDT
- Resistance daily: 3.12 USDT
- Key resistance: 3.40–3.50 USDT
Fundamental and On-Chain Context
- The TON ecosystem continues to attract attention thanks to recent partnerships with Telegram and the growth of deFi DApps (TVL slightly on the rise, +8% in the last month).
- Increase in transactions/day, with peaks around NFT and gaming events
- Roadmap 2025: launch of layer-2 scaling solutions (Q3) and enhancement of cross-chain asset bridge
Short and Medium Term Scenario
Short term (days/1 week):
- Key support levels: 2.65 and 2.50 USDT
- Intermediate resistance: 2.90 USDT, daily close above this level would be a first signal of strength
- Major resistance: 3.12 USDT
If TON were to break with volumes above average the level of 2.90 USDT, we could see a rapid extension towards the upper resistance.
Medium term (2-4 weeks):
- Breakdown of 2.65 would likely lead to a bearish acceleration towards 2.35–2.40 USDT
- Stable recovery above 3.12 USDT would free up space to attempt the 3.40–3.50 USDT area
Expected patterns: Classic patterns are not visible, but a compression of volatility emerges: typically a prelude to decisive movements (“squeeze”). Watch out for any volume spikes on box range breakouts.
Toncoin (TON) Price Forecast
Bull scenario: Surpassing with volumes and convincing weekly closures above 3.12 USDT would project TON towards a short-term target at 3.40 USDT, with potential to test towards the annual highs (3.90–4.20 USDT).
Bearish scenario: Loss of 2.65 USDT on daily and confirmation with volumes, opening towards 2.35–2.40 USDT, with risk of further deepening in case of general deterioration of the crypto market or new macro tensions.
Personal forecast (this is not financial advice): The current technical structure suggests a balance between buyers and sellers. However, the growth in the fundamentals of the TON ecosystem, strengthened by partnerships with Telegram and the good performance of the on-chain, presents a slightly favorable scenario for a bull recovery, barring exogenous shocks. A breakout above 3.12 appears more likely by July.
Conclusion and final suggestions
Toncoin shows a complex but promising technical structure, with clear accumulation levels and many positions ready to move directionally on the next breakout or breakdown signal. Improving fundamentals and a credible roadmap strengthen the long-term appeal. However, volatility remains high: well-calibrated stop-losses below 2.50 USDT should be seriously considered.
Attention: this analysis is not financial advice. We encourage readers to always conduct their own risk assessments and manage positions with discipline.
Sources: CoinGecko (prices), on-chain data TON, Brave Search research, TradingView charts
