Citigroup analysts Nathaniel Rupert and Alex Saunders have released a new Bitcoin (BTC) price forecast centered on three core valuation cases: bull, base, and bear. Each outcome depends on how much capital continues to flow into Bitcoin ETFs, which Citi now sees as the primary driver of price.
Citigroup’s 2025 Bitcoin Price Outlook
According to the analysis shared by the Financial Times, the bull case sets Bitcoin’s year-end target at $199,000. This assumes ETF inflows accelerate beyond current levels.
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas already predicts that BlackRock’s IBIT could hit $100 billion in AuM soon, having hit the $80 billion mark recently. Citi’s data shows that each $1 billion in ETF inflows adds roughly 3.6% to BTC’s price. If institutions continue to pour money into ETFs, the price could break previous records.
The base case forecast predicts that Bitcoin will reach $135,000 by the end of December. Citi expects around $15 billion in total ETF inflows for the year, slightly more than the previous cycle. This forecast assumes that the volume of institutional purchases and growth in ETF products will be consistent.
There is no particular target given in the bear case, but a decline in price could happen if there’s any reduction in inflows. Citi notes that ETF-related demand is absorbing much of the available supply. Treasury holdings and ETFs already control over 10% of BTC’s circulating supply. With low market liquidity and slow token velocity, even moderate outflows could trigger significant drops.
BTC Price Now Hinges on ETF Demand, Says Citigroup Analysts
Citigroup has abandoned older Bitcoin models, such as stock-to-flow and production cost analysis. According to the analysts, those methods, though once popular, are now poor predictors. Even adoption-based models, like those using active address data, are no longer reliable. Citi’s adoption model indicated that BTC’s network value is on track to be worth $75,000 per bitcoin as part of the base case target of $135,000.
The analysis emphasized how Bitcoin ETF flows are responsible for 41% of BTC’s return variation this year. The analysts believe that mainstream demand through regulated financial products has replaced on-chain indicators as the dominant signal.
Citi also pointed out that BTC has become integrated into major financial systems. Crypto-related stocks are now available in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and other indices. Hence, even traditional investors could account for BTC exposure in their portfolios.
Citigroup’s analysts stated that the BTC price movement will be determined by sustained demand. If inflows persist, prices will likely rise. If not, downside risk grows. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price is down today after Galaxy Digital offloaded $1.18 billion worth of the cryptocurrency.
Paul
Paul Adedoyin is a crypto journalist with 4+ years experience who provides timely news, in-depth research, and insightful content to inform and empower his audience. His works have been featured on sites such as CryptoMode, CryptoNewsFlash among others.
He holds a degree in Geophysics from OAU, Nigeria. When he’s not writing, he loves watching soccer and reading educative journals.
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