Africa’s Commodity Export Value Slumped 5.6% in Two Years as Oil Prices, Volumes Drop — UNCTAD Warns of Deepening Vulnerability

Africa’s commodity export value declined by 5.6% between 2021 and 2023, dragged down by a 20% fall in average oil prices and dwindling export volumes from its top crude producers — Nigeria, Angola, and Algeria.

This is according to a newly released report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) titled The State of Commodity Dependence 2025, which paints a stark picture of the continent’s heavy reliance on raw exports and deepening exposure to global shocks.

UNCTAD attributed the downturn to a combination of weak oil demand and production inefficiencies in Africa’s major oil economies.

“Africa, by contrast, saw a 5.6% drop in the value of its commodity exports… mainly due to a 20% drop in average oil prices and a significant decline in export volumes from the continent’s leading oil exporters, namely Algeria, Angola and Nigeria,” the report stated.

The UN body revealed that more than two-thirds of developing countries—95 out of 143—remained commodity-dependent between 2021 and 2023. The situation is even more alarming among the world’s poorest nations, with over 80% of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) still highly dependent on exports of primary products.

“Such dependence, long been a global concern, hinders economic resilience and leaves developing nations vulnerable to price volatility and external shocks,” UNCTAD warned, urging a push towards value addition and structural diversification.

Commodity exports—ranging from crude oil and gas to cocoa, copper, and coffee—still account for about one-third of global trade. But while the value of overall global merchandise trade expanded by 25.6% from 2012 to 2014, to 2021, to 2023, commodity exports grew by just 15.5% over the same period, signaling slower growth in resource-dependent economies.

Energy still leads, but agriculture and mining gain ground

Despite a decline in its share, energy remained the single largest contributor to commodity trade, accounting for 44.5% of total global commodity exports between 2021 and 2023. This marked a decline from 52.1% a decade earlier, reflecting shifting global energy dynamics and weakening demand for fossil fuels.

Meanwhile, agriculture and mining exports gained prominence. Agricultural goods surged 34% to nearly $2.3 trillion during the period, with food products making up nearly 90% of that value. Mining products—such as ores, metals, and industrial minerals—averaged $1.65 trillion in annual export value, a 33.4% increase over the past decade, and now contribute 23% of global commodity trade.

Nigeria is among the laggards in trade growth and digital shift

UNCTAD’s July 2025 Global Trade Update further underlined Nigeria’s sluggish participation in global trade growth. While developed countries saw a 4% increase in imports quarter-over-quarter, developing nations, including Nigeria, experienced declines.

The agency warned that many commodity-dependent economies like Nigeria continue to export over 80% of their raw materials without value addition. This weakens their bargaining position in international markets and exposes them to greater risk from price fluctuations and trade disruptions.

To reduce vulnerability and promote sustainable growth, the report recommends a clear shift toward processing and manufacturing, especially in Africa, where over 90% of extractive and agricultural commodities are exported without transformation.

With oil revenues stagnating and economic buffers wearing thin, the call to diversify has grown louder. UNCTAD’s findings underscore the urgency of rethinking development models that hinge on unrefined resources, for Africa, and particularly Nigeria.