Bitwise has released a new report projecting where XRP could be by 2030. The investment firm outlined three price scenarios using a model based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM).
The forecasts consider regulation, market adoption, and overall crypto growth to show where XRP price might head over the next five years.
How Bitwise Built Its Forecast
The model used several factors to calculate XRP’s potential price. Alpha measured XRP-specific drivers like regulatory clarity or major partnerships.
Beta looked at how the XRP price moves compared to the overall crypto market and was set at 1.92. Bitwise also assumed a 60% annual market return, which lines up with a scenario where Bitcoin reaches $1 million by 2029.
The model included a volatility-based discount factor, which lowered expected returns based on XRP’s historical price swings. This gave three clear outcomes: bear, bull, and maximum growth.
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Here are $XRP Price Predictions for 2030 from Bitwise.🧵🧵🧵 pic.twitter.com/znBi6yPxdV
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XRP Price Predictions for 2030
In the bear case, XRP adoption in payments and tokenization stays weak. Alpha is -50%, and volatility is very high. The model predicts XRP could fall from $3.08 to $0.13 by 2030, which would be a -59% annual return.
The bull case sees steady growth with no major regulatory setbacks. With alpha at zero and lower volatility, XRP price could rise to $12.68 by 2030, giving a 27% annual return.
In the max case, XRP gains a meaningful share of the global payments and tokenization market. With slightly positive alpha and lower volatility, XRP could climb to $29.32, a $2.9 trillion market cap, which is about 13.8% of Bitcoin’s projected value if Bitcoin hits $1 million.
Bitwise says XRP doesn’t need to dominate these markets to succeed, as even small shares of trillion-dollar sectors could create massive upside.
Why Bitwise Sees Long-Term Potential in XRP
Bitwise also reviewed what gives XRP value. The token powers transaction fees, prevents spam on the ledger through reserve requirements, and works as a bridge currency for multi-asset transfers.
Real-world usage is already happening. Companies like SBI Remit and MoneyMatch use XRP-based solutions for fast cross-border payments in Asia and underserved markets. The XRP Ledger now supports tokenized assets, automated market makers, decentralized identity tools, and multipurpose tokens, making it attractive to financial institutions interested in tokenization.
Bitwise added that the XRP price big 400% rally in Q4 2024, followed by a more crypto-friendly U.S. administration and reduced legal pressure. They believe a clearer regulatory environment and increasing network use could support long-term growth.
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