Today, Wednesday, March 5, 2025, could prove to be an important day in the financial markets: a timid optimism is starting to circulate, thanks to which the price of Bitcoin has returned close to $90,000.
Although there is still a lot of uncertainty, it seems to be decreasing.
Analysis of the daily performance of Bitcoin price
Yesterday, Bitcoin (BTC) was still around $87,000. Today, however, it has returned close to $90,000.
The current value is still significantly lower than both the $95,000 reached on Sunday and the $91,000 on Monday, but it seems that little by little it is at least recovering what it lost yesterday.
It must be said that on Saturday, before Trump’s announcement on the strategic crypto reserve of the USA, it was at $85,000, so today’s levels are still to be considered very positive.
In fact, when significant and sudden rises occur like the one on Sunday, a significant role is played by the forced liquidations of leveraged positions, and this produces inefficiencies. Such inefficiencies tend to be closed later at a subsequent time, and this is exactly what happened between Monday and yesterday.
So, net of these technical ups and downs, the price of BTC has gone from $85,000 on Saturday to about $90,000 today.
Note that the current level is perfectly in line with the minimum levels of the long lateralization phase that lasted from November 12 to February 24.
The role of the dollar
But Wednesday, March 5, 2025, could prove to be an important day in the financial markets for another reason: the weakening of the dollar.
The Dollar Index after Trump’s electoral victory had risen significantly, reaching up to 110 points a few days before his inauguration at the White House.
Since then, it had remained high until the beginning of February, and then it started to decline around the middle of the month.
In reality, with hindsight, we can say that after reaching 110 points as early as January 11, it started to decline, but until February 10, it was difficult to notice.
Today, however, there is one more element.
In fact, the decline that began after January 11 had brought the Dollar Index to about 106 points at the end of February, but the month had closed again at almost 108 points. However, despite this, on Monday it had fallen to 106 points and yesterday to 105.5.
Today it even fell below 105 points. The fact is that today’s drop constitutes an increase in the pace of the decline, given that it had been mild until February 26, but after the brief acceleration at the end of the month, it is becoming an important pace.
The issue of tariffs
The financial markets have recently been heavily influenced to the downside by the possible negative consequences of Trump’s trade war with tariffs.
These difficulties have also impacted the trend of the Bitcoin price, which fell below $80,000 at the end of February.
Now, however, things seem to be starting to change.
First of all, it must be said that Trump’s goal is to rebalance the USA’s trade balance with foreign countries, which is heavily skewed towards imports. For now, he has tried to do this by reducing imports with tariffs, but this is a measure that will harm everyone, including the Americans themselves.
The alternative, by far the better one, is to do it by increasing exports, but to achieve this, it needs the dollar to weaken.
The problem is that merely trying to devalue the dollar does not work, because the EU and China would in turn react by devaluing the euro and the yuan. For such a strategy to work, it is necessary that the EU and China do not react by devaluing their currency.
It should be remembered that for more than two years now, the Chinese yuan has been kept artificially very low by China, and the USA wants to try to force the Asian giant to stop doing so.
If today a sustained decline period of the Dollar Index had indeed begun, it could mean that Trump has managed to convince China to accept a devaluation of the dollar without devaluing the yuan in turn, and this could also lead Trump to reduce or remove the tariffs.
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The forecasts on the price of Bitcoin (BTC)
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Note that since February 25, the gold price rally has ended, due to a increase in fears about the future.
In fact, starting from February 25, a phase of decline in the prezzo dell’oro might have begun, which, if confirmed, could mean that fear in the markets is starting to fade.
Within such a scenario, it is reasonable to expect that sooner or later the price of Bitcoin may benefit from the improvement of the geopolitical and economic-financial framework, although it will probably require a period of adjustment before seeing it return above $100,000.
The important thing is that in the last few weeks of difficulty it has never fallen below $75,000, and that the evolution of the geopolitical situation continues on the path that seems to have been undertaken today.
In fact, there are rumors that Trump might already be inclined to reduce tariffs a bit, especially because with a Dollar Index dropping so rapidly, they could become unnecessary, as well as counterproductive, soon.
In the medium term, the price of Bitcoin could end up not only returning above $100,000, but perhaps also attempting new attacks on the fabled threshold of $110,000, which has not yet been surpassed until now.
