African airlines recorded a 4.7 percent year-on-year increase in air cargo demand in April 2025, according to new data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
The region also experienced a 9.7 percent year-on-year increase in cargo capacity, which, although signaling strong investment in logistics infrastructure, raises concerns about potential overcapacity and declining yields.
The data reflects a broader trend of recovery in global air freight, with IATA reporting a 5.8 percent global increase in demand for the month. This builds on the 4.5 percent growth recorded in March 2025, indicating a continued rebound after years of volatility in the cargo sector. For international cargo operations specifically, demand grew 6.5 percent while capacity expanded by 6.9 percent.
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“Air cargo demand grew strongly in April, with volumes up 5.8 percent year-on-year, building on March’s solid performance,” the IATA report stated.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, attributed the rise in global volumes to several market forces. Key among them was a surge in seasonal shipments of fashion and consumer goods, driven by front-loading activities as companies braced for possible tariff hikes by the U.S. on Chinese imports. At the same time, a sharp decline in jet fuel prices helped carriers cut costs and boost margins. Jet fuel prices were down 21.2 percent compared to April 2024 and 4.1 percent lower than in March 2025, offering a crucial financial cushion for airlines amid lingering macroeconomic uncertainty.
However, Walsh also cautioned that while cargo volumes and capacity are both expanding, forward indicators such as export order volumes remain weak, raising questions about the sustainability of the current growth trend.
African airlines’ 4.7 percent gain in cargo demand in April placed them behind their Latin American and Asia-Pacific counterparts, which recorded 10.1 percent and 10.0 percent growth respectively. North American carriers saw a 4.2 percent increase, while Europe’s demand grew 2.9 percent. Middle Eastern carriers had the weakest growth at 2.3 percent.
While Africa’s performance appears respectable, the 9.7 percent rise in capacity signals that supply is growing faster than demand. This imbalance could pressure freight rates, especially if export volumes slow. Some trade routes involving Africa already experienced contraction in April. The Africa–Asia corridor, a key route for raw materials and electronics, saw traffic decline, a reversal from previous months of steady gains.
IATA’s data also noted that Africa’s freight sector has been gradually improving due to increased investment in logistics hubs such as Addis Ababa Bole International Airport and Johannesburg’s OR Tambo International Airport, both of which serve as strategic points for intra-African and intercontinental cargo operations.
In addition, several African governments have been modernizing customs and port logistics to reduce delays and cut trade costs. However, challenges remain, including infrastructure bottlenecks, high operating costs, and limited cold-chain facilities, especially for agricultural and pharmaceutical shipments.
Several macroeconomic conditions shaped cargo performance in April. World industrial production rose by 3.2 percent year-on-year in March 2025, pointing to improved manufacturing output. Global goods trade jumped 6.5 percent month-on-month, driven largely by Asia’s export activity and the recovery of consumer markets in the U.S. and Europe. The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 50.5—just above the expansion threshold. However, the PMI for new export orders dropped to 47.2, staying below the 50 mark for the fourth consecutive month, signaling ongoing softness in forward demand.
Trade performance across regions was mixed. IATA reported growth in North America–Asia and Europe–North America trade lanes, fueled by tech and consumer electronics shipments. But traffic declined on several corridors, notably Middle East–Europe, Africa–Asia, and intra-European routes. These declines highlight growing volatility in global trade, influenced by geopolitical tensions, supply chain reconfigurations, and continued disruptions in the Red Sea and Suez Canal zones.
While current demand growth is encouraging, the widening gap with capacity suggests a need for cautious fleet planning and route management. Experts have noted the need for Airlines to focus on improving efficiency and developing more diversified trade routes to hedge against shocks in any one corridor.
Furthermore, with competition intensifying from Middle Eastern and Asian mega-hubs offering lower handling costs and faster turnaround times, African carriers are expected to double down on operational improvements and public-private partnerships to remain competitive.
However, with the African Continental Free Trade Area slowly taking shape and cargo-friendly initiatives such as the Single African Air Transport Market gaining traction, the long-term fundamentals remain strong—if they are matched with timely investment and policy reforms.
