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TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) produces aircraft components with the military and top aerospace companies as its customers. That base has translated into rising revenue and high margins, but the company carries a sizable debt load due to a high leverage model that resembles that of a private equity firm.
In this article, we’ll look at TDG’s latest share price, Wall Street sentiment, multiyear price forecasts, and the key factors that are playing a critical role in the company’s path going forward.
Current Stock Overview
Market Cap: $73 billion
Trailing P/E Ratio: 42.62
Forward P/E Ratio: 31.15
1-Year Return: -9%
2025 YTD: 2%
TransDigm shares are currently trading around $1,289. However, a small year-to-date gain isn’t telling the entire story, since the company issued a special $90 per share dividend in September that represents roughly 7% of the stock’s current price.
TransDigm Group is growing revenue due to high demand for its aircraft components from customers with deep pockets. Second quarter sales, which were announced in August, increased 9% year-over-year, while net profit margin came to 22%.
The company uses a private equity model to grow its business, which has advantages and disadvantages. TransDigm Group acquires smaller aircraft companies to boost revenue and cash flow, but that results in substantial debt on its balance sheet.
A 5.76 debt-to-EBITDA ratio indicates that its debt is almost six times higher than its annual EBITDA. The median debt-to-EBITDA ratio in the aerospace industry is 2.22, and TransDigm’s ratio is higher than more than 80% of aerospace companies.
TransDigm isn’t in any rush to pay off its debt, especially since it recently issued a special $90 dividend per share for investors. Any cyclical slowdowns in the aerospace industry could put pressure on earnings and its balance sheet.
TDG has a consensus Buy rating from 25 analysts, according to Benzinga. The average price target is $1,506.22 per share, which suggests a moderate upside from current levels. The highest price target is $1,839, and the lowest is $1,025. The three most recent ratings suggest a near-term average target of $1,431.67, suggesting an 11% upside.
Quick Snapshot Table of Predictions & Methodology for Forecasting
|
Year |
Bearish Prediction |
Average Prediction |
Bullish Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2025 |
$1,119.79 |
$310.19 |
$1,338.78 |
|
2026 |
$1,035.82 |
$1,216.65 |
$1,364.62 |
|
2027 |
$1,263.97 |
$1,664.03 |
$2,038.70 |
|
2028 |
$1,979.94 |
$2,534.40 |
$2,897.10 |
|
2029 |
$2,472.74 |
$2,745.21 |
$3,248.72 |
|
2030 |
$2,390.40 |
$2,567.79 |
$2,712.80 |
The forecast range in this table is based on algorithmic projections provided by CoinCodex. These models use historical price trends, volatility patterns, and moving averages to estimate future stock prices over multiple time horizons.
Bull & Bear Case
The advantages and disadvantages of TransDigm’s private equity model are key to analyzing its stock, along with other bullish and bearish points to consider.
Bull Case
- TransDigm has customers with deep pockets, such as the military and top aerospace companies
- The company’s private equity model results in quick market share gains through acquiring competitors
- Revenue is growing, and net profit margins remain high
Bear Case
- The aerospace industry is cyclical, and any disruptions can have a tangible impact on TransDigm’s financial results
- TransDigm is deep in debt and issues high dividends instead of paying it off
- Its debt is higher than more than 80% of aerospace companies, which weighs on its balance sheet
Stock Price Prediction for 2025
CoinCodex projects limited price movement for TransDigm in the rest of this year. The midpoint of the forecast suggests a slight decline, but the maximum price target implies that TDG may have more room to grow. The company’s customer base has deep budgets, which could support revenue expansion.
Stock Price Prediction for 2026
CoinCodex projects that TransDigm stock will take a breather in 2026, with even the highest price target suggesting a downgrade from current levels. The aerospace industry may go through a slow cycle, which can hamper revenue growth, potentially dragging down share prices. Any new special dividends can also contribute to the lowered target.
Stock Price Prediction for 2030
Although CoinCodex isn’t optimistic about TDG stock in 2026, that sentiment changes completely in 2030, with the highest price target implying that TDG can almost double from current levels. Strategic acquisitions that translate into higher revenue and cash flow can help TransDigm realize CoinCodex’s price projections.
Investment Considerations
TransDigm continues to grow thanks to strong demand for its aerospace components and its acquisition model. However, its model of buying smaller companies results in high debt, which can hurt it more than most aerospace companies in the event of an economic or aerospace-specific slowdown.
The company has a robust customer base and may be suitable for investors who want a growing aerospace company that pays high dividends.
Frequently Asked Questions
A
TransDigm stock may be a good long-term investment for people who are bullish about the aerospace industry. CoinCodex forecasts bullish sentiment over the next five years.
A
TDG currently has a consensus rating of Buy that comes from 25 analysts.
A
TDG pays special dividends instead of a regular payout. They vary and are not guaranteed, but the recent $90 special dividend issued in September represents a yield of roughly 7%, based on the current price.
