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Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) shares have suffered over the last year as softer demand and the impact of commodity cost inflation have weighed on results. Investors should anticipate continued volatility as the market weighs those challenges against recent internal pivots and leadership changes.

In this article, we’ll review TAP’s current price and valuation, examine price-target forecasts through 2030, analyze Wall Street’s latest sentiment, and break down the bullish and bearish outlooks shaping the stock’s risk/reward proposition.

Current TAP Stock Overview

• Market Cap: $8.73 billion
• Trailing P/E: 9.11
• Forward P/E: 7.92
• 1 Year Return: -21%
• YTD Return: -23%

Shares of Molson Coors are trading at a 52-week low of around $44 as of October 2025, considerably below their all-time high of nearly $89 recorded in October 2016. Over the past year, TAP’s price has fluctuated between $44 and $64, with an average price of approximately $55, showing downward pressure overall despite intermittent rebounds.

In its second quarter 2025 earnings report, Molson Coors revised its full-year guidance downward, citing softer U.S. beer demand and, notably, a higher-than-expected financial impact from the indirect costs of tariffs on aluminum. The company noted that the volatility of the Midwest Premium, which governs the pricing of aluminum used in its massive volume of beverage cans, is a constant pressure on its cost of goods sold. 

To counter these challenges, management has reaffirmed its focus on expanding premium offerings like Madri and Peroni, while also making strategic moves in the “Beyond Beer” segment, including integrating the distribution of Fever-Tree’s cocktail mixers and tonic waters in the U.S. market.

In October, Rahul Goyal, former chief strategy officer of Molson succeeded Gavin Hattersley as president and CEO. A 24-year company veteran, he’s tasked with implementing the company’s strategic shifts while addressing a U.S. market where alcohol consumption is dropping.

According to Benzinga, the current consensus rating for Molson Coors is a Hold based on 20 analysts’ opinions, with an average price target near $58. Targets range from a low of $50 from Jefferies, to a high of $77 from Roth MKM. The three most recent targets by Goldman Sachs, Piper Sandler, and Jefferies average about $53, implying a 15% gain from current levels.

Quick Snapshot Table of Predictions

Bull & Bear Case

The bull case centers on Molson Coors executing a portfolio-shifting strategy that emphasizes higher-margin products and cost efficiencies. The bear case focuses on persistent operational and macro risks.

Bull Case

• Core brands like Coors Light, Miller Lite, and Coors Banquet continue to show market share momentum and are positioned favorably to take advantage of premiumization trends within the beer category.
• Molson Coors’ aggressive pivot into “Beyond Beer” and “Above Premium” products, such as the rapid growth of Madri in the U.K. and new high-ABV offerings, is creating new revenue streams and improving the overall sales mix.
• Management has reaffirmed its guidance for strong underlying free cash flow, indicating Molson Coors’ ability to fund significant capital projects while continuing its substantial share repurchase program and maintaining a growing dividend.
• Large-scale investments in supply chain and brewery modernization, including the Golden Brewery project, are expected to lead to substantial long-term cost savings and margin expansion, insulating the company from future inflationary shocks.
• Key international markets, notably Canada and the U.K., have consistently delivered market share growth, providing a crucial element of stability that helps to offset volume challenges in the more competitive U.S.

Bear Case

• Persistent inflation and a cost-of-living crisis are causing lower-income consumers to pull back on discretionary purchases or switch to lower-cost value brands, which directly pressures the overall industry volume and margins.
• The significant financial drag from the high cost of aluminum, driven by both the volatility of the Midwest Premium and the indirect consequences of trade tariffs, has already necessitated a reduction in Molson Coors’ annual profit guidance.
• The beverage market remains highly competitive, particularly in the premium and craft segments, where growth is concentrated. Maintaining market share gains against rivals who are also aggressively innovating in “Beyond Beer” and non-alcoholic segments requires costly and continuous marketing investment.
• The success of Molson Coors’ “Acceleration Plan” relies heavily on a quick and profitable rollout of new products and the realization of operational efficiencies. Any delays could prolong the period of low or negative earnings growth, keeping the stock suppressed.
• Geopolitical and economic tensions, particularly in the Central and Eastern European markets where Molson Coors operates, continue to introduce uncertainty and volatility into regional performance.

TAP Stock Price Prediction for 2025

According to CoinCodex, Molson Coors’ stock is projected to experience a moderate trading range in 2025 with periodic volatility as analysts are mixed about short-term economic and operational challenges from tariffs and competitive pressures. 

This outlook implies that high commodity costs, exacerbated by the aluminum tariff, coupled with ongoing soft consumer demand, are expected to weigh on near-term performance. Investors should remain cautious during this period. The stock may continue to test the lower boundaries of its trading range before a significant rebound can materialize.

TAP Stock Price Prediction for 2026

In 2026, Molson Coors is forecasted by CoinCodex to trade within a wide price channel, influenced by both recovery potential in demand and ongoing cost pressures. 

Market activity is expected to be shaped by seasonal beverage consumption patterns, tariff developments, and company strategies to improve profitability. Investor sentiment should reflect these mixed factors, driving volatility throughout the year.

TAP Stock Price Prediction for 2030

CoinCodex forecasts for 2030 suggest that Molson Coors will experience a relatively significant growth phase as the company capitalizes on evolving consumer preferences and expands into new beverage categories. 

Although fluctuations due to macroeconomic conditions and sector competition will persist, the overall outlook supports a broadly positive trend with moderate price variability.

Investment Considerations

Investors should consider the impact of tariffs on Molson Coors, particularly the steep increase in U.S. aluminum import duties, which doubled to 50% in 2025, significantly raising manufacturing costs and squeezing operating margins. Understanding how the company’s pricing power and supply chain resilience mitigate these cost pressures is key to evaluating earnings prospects.

A second key consideration is the effectiveness and speed of Molson Coors’ “Acceleration Plan,” specifically efforts to premiumize its portfolio and expand into the “Beyond Beer” category. The goal is to have the Above Premium portfolio account for about one-third of net sales revenue, demonstrating a necessary pivot away from reliance on legacy brands. 

Investors should monitor the performance of key growth drivers like new CEO Rahul Goyal’s strategic direction, the success of international brands like Madri, and the integration of strategic partnerships like the one with Fever-Tree in the U.S. 

Slow adoption of these new high-margin products or failure to integrate them effectively into the existing distribution network could severely undermine the optimistic long-term prediction. 

Molson Coors also operates in a highly competitive sector influenced by fluctuating consumer trends, such as the shift toward craft beers and hard seltzers, which require ongoing innovation and marketing investment. Along with a broader economic environment influencing discretionary spending on alcoholic beverages, these factors can affect sales volumes and growth potential.

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