Scope for New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to rise further, but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 0.5885/0.5935. In the longer run, slowdown in momentum indicates that the odds of NZD reaching 0.5845 are low, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Odds of NZD reaching 0.5845 are low
24-HOUR VIEW: “After dipping to a low of 0.5857 last Friday, NZD lifted off and rose, reaching a high of 0.5929. NZD eased from the high to close at 0.5919 (+0.49%). Although there is scope for NZD to rise further today, overbought conditions indicate that any advance is likely part of a higher range of 0.5885/0.5935. In other words, NZD is unlikely to break clearly above 0.5935.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “In our latest narrative last Thursday (31 Jul, spot at 0.5905), we expected NZD to ‘decline further to 0.5885, potentially reaching 0.5845.’ We stated that ‘the weakness is intact as long as NZD holds below the ‘strong resistance’ at 0.5960.’ After dropping to a low of 0.5857 on Friday, NZD then rose to a high of 0.5929. While our ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.5960 has not been breached yet, the slowdown in momentum indicates that the odds of NZD reaching 0.5845 are low.”
