Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane potential, US risk to increase around mid-August

AccuWeather hurricane experts are predicting three to five named storms will form across the Atlantic basin during August.

Development potential for long-track tropical storms and hurricanes is expected to increase near the middle of the month. At least one of the areas of interest could track through the Caribbean and may become a concern for the United States.

Two areas of interest are being monitored for tropical development in the coming days. While these systems are currently thousands of miles from the U.S., at least one appears to be caught in steering breezes that could bring it closer and make it a potential concern.

The first is over the open Atlantic, where the next named storm could take shape.

“The timeline for high-risk development zone is this weekend into early next week,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill said. “However, there appears to be no threat to the U.S. from this low-pressure area as it will get caught up in the main steering flow of the jet stream and curve northward somewhere near or east of Bermuda some days later.”

A large plume of Saharan dust is moving off the African coast late this week.

“That dust plume will traverse the main subtropical development area of the Atlantic through the middle of next week,” Merrill said. “Beyond the middle of next week, though, the dust train drops off significantly.”

That drop-off is expected to coincide with a cluster of thunderstorms moving off the coast of Africa, associated with a low-pressure area or tropical wave. Steering breezes suggest this wave will have opportunities to organize and strengthen as it tracks west-northwest toward and through the Caribbean, provided it avoids interaction with the region’s larger, mountainous islands.

“The timeline for any impact of this area of interest for the Caribbean or the U.S. is Aug. 15 to 22 or perhaps a bit longer, depending on its exact track,” Merrill said.

Coastal and travel interests in the Caribbean, as well as the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts, are advised to monitor the situation closely, as it may pose the first significant tropical threat of the season.

So far this month, Tropical Storm Dexter has been the only named storm in the Atlantic. While the month is far from over, an average of five named storms typically form during August.

With Dexter already named and a significant chance for two additional storms to develop around midmonth, at least three named storms appear likely. Beyond that, there’s the potential for more tropical activity heading into the Labor Day weekend. Of the systems on the radar for the third week of August, one or both could strengthen into hurricanes.

The next names on the list for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season are Erin, Fernand and Gabrielle.

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