Bitcoin reached $117,000, a four-week high, while the Fed Funds markets are strongly pricing in an imminent rate cut. Signals from the futures market and Fed Funds curves are collected and synthesized in real-time by tools like CME FedWatch and the official calendar of the Federal Reserve (FOMC). In this context, the area $118,000 remains the breaking point that could trigger new volatility.
According to the data collected by our analysis desk between September 10 and 16, 2025, limit orders above $118k have increased by ~35% on major exchanges, highlighting concentrated interest in that range. Market analysts also observe an increase in positioning on options with a positive delta towards $120k, a behavior that historically amplifies price swings during breakout phases.
Price and Probability of Cuts: Market Snapshot
The movement of BTC fits into a context of high expectations ahead of the September 2025 FOMC meeting, currently under discussion. Below are the observed probabilities:
- 96% — probability of a 25 bps cut according to CME FedWatch
- 4% — probability of a 50 bps cut
- 93% — odds on Polymarket for a 25 bps cut
- 5% — odds on Polymarket for a 50 bps cut
The percentages reflect real-time expectations and do not guarantee outcomes. That said, the Bitcoin market prices in both a gradual easing and the risk of surprises in the Fed’s communication.
Impact of Fed Cuts on BTC Trajectory
A 25 bps cut, in line with consensus, tends to favor risky assets due to more accommodative financial conditions. If the area $118,000 consolidates as support, the dynamic could accelerate towards new highs. However, the reaction will heavily depend on the language of Jerome Powell: a “data-dependent” message with caution on inflation could limit enthusiasm, while a signal of a multi-cut path would strengthen sentiment.
Technical levels to monitor: resistances, supports, and scenarios
The range $117,500–$118,500 remains the short-term resistance. Beyond this zone, traders map out the following steps:
- Decisive breakthrough of $118,000 — intermediate target at $120,000.
- Price discovery — extension towards $124,500 in case of sustained momentum.
- Rejection at resistance — supports at $116,800–$114,500; possible retest of $112,000 (level corresponding to the 100-day SMA).
In this context, risk management remains central: tight ranges and rapid reactions to key levels can amplify intraday movements. For operational strategies and risk management tips, please refer to our guide on risk management.
September FOMC: What to Listen for in Powell’s Speech
Traders look at three elements: size of the cut, dot plot (rate projections), and the guidance for upcoming meetings. Indeed, an implicit indication of more cuts by the end of the year would strengthen the liquidity theme, often favorable to BTC. According to Swissblock, it is reasonable to expect greater volatility around the announcement, and their Bitcoin Risk Index can help assess the strength of the bullish structure.
Context Data: Volumes, Derivatives, and On‑Chain
- Spot volumes — up by ~18% compared to the 30-day average, indicating increasing participation on the eve of the meeting.
- Open interest on derivatives — increased by approximately 6% in the last 48 hours, with a higher positioning in near-term expirations.
- Funding rate — slightly positive, around +0.01% daily, indicative of a prevalence of long positions in the short term.
- On‑chain — network activity shows net flows from exchanges consistent with a cautious accumulation phase (net outflow estimated at around 7,500 BTC in the last 30 days).
These elements, combined with the macro calendar, explain the increase in price elasticity near the FOMC event.
Voices from the Market: What Analysts Are Saying
The analyst Michaël van de Poppe indicates that a clean break of $118K could pave the way to $120K and beyond.
#Bitcoin attacking the range resistance pre-FOMC could be a great sign.
Quite usually it’s just a run before a drop.
We’ll see.
It’s going to be fun! pic.twitter.com/27GySz5j7g
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 17, 2025
While the user Jelle identifies the $116.5K–$118K zone as the directional area for the session.
#Bitcoin keeps slowly grinding higher, now pushing into the 116.5-118k resistance area.
Break 118k and hold above it, and new all-time highs are next. pic.twitter.com/RtIYXeFsBd
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) September 17, 2025
Quick FAQ
Reliability of the probabilities of a 25 bps cut in September
The readings of CME FedWatch and prediction markets like Polymarket represent the implicit consensus of operators in real-time. Although useful for nowcasting event risk, such probabilities remain non-binding: surprises in Powell’s conference could overturn the pricing in a matter of minutes.
Conclusion
With $117,000 reached and the $118,000 threshold in sight, the BTC market is in a particularly sensitive phase. A rate cut in line with expectations and accommodative guidance could push the price towards $120,000 and even $124,500, while more hawkish communication could lead to a return towards the support area between $116,800 and $114,500. It should be noted that the initial reaction could be followed by a rebalancing in the hours following the Fed conference.
Disclaimer: the information is for journalistic purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Trading in the markets involves risks.
