CBN Says It’s Preparing Nigeria’s Financial Sector for $1tn Economy, But Analysts Doubt Tinubu’s Broader Economic Policies Will Deliver

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is aggressively pursuing policies to strengthen the country’s financial sector and position it for a one trillion-dollar economy, CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso announced at the Monetary Policy Forum 2025 held in Abuja on Thursday.

Addressing an audience of fiscal authorities, lawmakers, private sector leaders, development partners, and economic scholars, Cardoso outlined the CBN’s strategy to manage disinflation while maintaining a forward-looking and resilient monetary policy.

A major plank of the CBN’s vision for a stronger economy is the introduction of new minimum capital requirements for banks, set to take effect in March 2026. Cardoso stressed that this move is aimed at fortifying the banking sector to support Nigeria’s aspirations for a $1 trillion economy.

This initiative mirrors the 2005 banking consolidation exercise, which saw the number of banks shrink, but also resulted in a more robust and competitive banking system. However, the current public and rights offerings of some of the banks were oversubscribed.

The recapitalization drive comes when economic turbulence and high inflation have eroded the real value of banks’ capital, leaving them more vulnerable to external shocks. With the CBN’s mandate to ensure financial stability, strengthening the banks is seen as a crucial step toward economic resilience.

Restoring Confidence in Nigeria’s FX Market

Another critical component of the CBN’s strategy is a comprehensive overhaul of Nigeria’s foreign exchange (FX) market. This week, the apex bank launched the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Code, a move aimed at promoting integrity, fairness, transparency, and efficiency in forex transactions.

“Built on six core principles, it represents a binding commitment from the financial community to rebuild trust and inspire confidence,” Cardoso stated.

Under his leadership, the CBN has taken decisive steps to dismantle past forex policies that created distortions and encouraged currency speculation. One major change was the reversal of the 2015 ban on 41 items from accessing forex at the official market, a policy introduced under former CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele.

Additionally, the CBN has focused on boosting diaspora remittances, a key source of forex inflow. According to Cardoso, remittances through International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) surged by 79.4% to $4.18 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting the positive impact of recent forex market reforms.

Financial Inclusion and Women Empowerment

Cardoso also emphasized the CBN’s commitment to financial inclusion, particularly through initiatives that empower women entrepreneurs. The Women Entrepreneurs Finance (We-Fi) initiative, operating under the National Financial Inclusion Strategy, aims to bridge the gender gap by providing more women with access to financial services and digital banking tools.

In a country where millions remain unbanked, the CBN’s push for financial inclusion is seen as a key strategy to drive economic growth. Expanding access to formal financial services could unlock new business opportunities and increase domestic savings and investments.

The Reality Check: Will Tinubu’s Economic Policies Deliver a $1 Trillion Economy?

While the CBN is implementing critical reforms, economic analysts are skeptical that Nigeria’s broader economic policies under President Bola Tinubu will create the conditions necessary for a one-trillion-dollar economy.

A major concern is the lingering economic hardship, rising inflation, and declining purchasing power that have stalled economic growth despite monetary policy adjustments. Analysts argue that for Nigeria to reach a $1 trillion economy, the government must implement fundamental reforms beyond banking and forex policies.

Some of the key challenges that threaten Nigeria’s economic ambitions include:

1. Inflationary Pressures: Despite the CBN’s tight monetary stance, inflation remains stubbornly high, making it difficult for businesses and households to thrive.
2. Forex Volatility: While the CBN has introduced reforms, the exchange rate remains unstable, with periodic currency depreciation still threatening investor confidence.
3. Fiscal Deficit and Public Debt: Nigeria’s rising debt burden and widening fiscal deficit have placed constraints on government spending.
4. Weak Infrastructure and Power Sector Failures: The lack of stable electricity, poor road networks, and inadequate infrastructure continue to stifle economic productivity.
5. Declining Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Foreign investors remain cautious due to policy uncertainty and concerns over governance and security.

Economic expert Dr. Bismarck Rewane, CEO of Financial Derivatives Company, recently noted that without comprehensive structural reforms, Nigeria will struggle to hit the $1 trillion economy target. He argued that while monetary policy adjustments are important, Nigeria needs a strong industrial base, a functional power sector, and a stable business environment to achieve meaningful economic growth.

Since assuming office, President Tinubu has introduced major economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and unifying the exchange rate. While these moves were seen as bold steps toward economic stability, their short-term effects have been severe, leading to higher transportation costs, increased food prices, and widespread economic hardship.

With public confidence waning, many Nigerians and businesses remain unconvinced that the government has a clear roadmap to economic prosperity. Once the largest economy in Africa, Nigeria is now the continent’s fourth largest economy, with $252.74 billion in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Without concrete action on job creation, industrialization, and infrastructure development, many believe the $1 trillion economy goal remains a dream.