A battle between 2 of the top teams in the MAC will take place on Tuesday night, as the Toledo Rockets will visit the Ohio Bobcats. Both teams are currently 5-2 in league play, but they are chasing Akron (7-0) and Miami-Ohio (6-1), who are at the top of the standings, so this game will go a long way when it comes to staying in conference title contention. In this important league game, I believe the Rockets are live road underdogs and will be taking the points in this matchup. The injury report looms large for the Bobcats, as they played their last game without their starting frontcourt of Aidan Hadaway and AJ Clayton. While they were able to pull off the win against Kent State, Hadaway and Clayton are the Bobcats’ most important players according to their BPM rating (Torvik). Ohio may have also been fortunate to walk away with a win on Friday, as Kent State shot just 3-for-19 from beyond the arc and 14-for-25 at the free-throw line (56%). For an Ohio defense that is one of the worst in the country defending the 3-point line, we can consider them to have been a bit lucky last time out. I expect the injuries for Ohio to catch up to it in its second game without Hadaway and Clayton.
As for Toledo, it appears to match up well against the shorthanded Bobcats. Ohio creates a lot of its defensive value by turning teams over (85th nationally in defensive turnover rate), but Toledo’s ball handling across the board will make it tough for Ohio to accomplish that on Tuesday (25th nationally in offensive turnover rate). Toledo’s heavy rim attack should have success in this matchup if it takes care of the ball well enough. On the defensive end, it’s not necessarily pretty for Toledo (318th in defensive efficiency, per Torvik). However, the absence of Clayton and Hadaway will make it tough for Ohio to expose a smaller Rockets front line. Clayton and Hadaway are the Bobcats’ top 2 interior scorers, and it doesn’t appear they have many viable replacements. In one of the bigger mid-major contests of the night, the Rockets will be the side I am on. The Rockets are a live underdog in this matchup; I wouldn’t be shocked if they were able to win this game handily.
Toledo vs Ohio prediction: Toledo +2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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