Annual inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, declined to 2.5% in January from 2.6% in December, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday.
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 2.6% on a yearly basis in January, down from 2.9% in December. This print came in line with the market expectation. On a monthly basis, the PCE Price Index and the core PCE Price Index both rose 0.3%, as anticipated.
Market reaction to PCE inflation data
The PCE inflation data don’t seem to be having a noticeable impact on the US Dollar’s (USD) valuation. At the time of press, the USD Index was up 0.04% on the day at 107.33.
US Dollar PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.49% | 0.25% | 1.15% | 1.32% | 2.25% | 2.46% | 0.47% | |
| EUR | -0.49% | -0.33% | 0.49% | 0.64% | 1.75% | 1.77% | -0.19% | |
| GBP | -0.25% | 0.33% | 0.89% | 0.97% | 2.08% | 2.11% | 0.14% | |
| JPY | -1.15% | -0.49% | -0.89% | 0.16% | 1.16% | 1.37% | -0.58% | |
| CAD | -1.32% | -0.64% | -0.97% | -0.16% | 0.87% | 1.13% | -0.81% | |
| AUD | -2.25% | -1.75% | -2.08% | -1.16% | -0.87% | 0.02% | -1.91% | |
| NZD | -2.46% | -1.77% | -2.11% | -1.37% | -1.13% | -0.02% | -1.92% | |
| CHF | -0.47% | 0.19% | -0.14% | 0.58% | 0.81% | 1.91% | 1.92% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
This section below was published as a preview of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for October at 07:00 GMT.
- The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is expected to rise 0.3% MoM and 2.6% YoY in January.
- Markets largely expect the Federal Reserve to hold the policy setting unchanged in March and May.
- Annual PCE inflation is forecast to edge lower to 2.5% from 2.6% in December.
The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for January on Friday at 13:30 GMT. This index is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred measure of inflation.
Although PCE inflation data is usually seen as a big market mover, it might be difficult to assess its impact on the US Dollar’s (USD) valuation this time. Markets see virtually no chance of a Fed interest rate cut in March, and investors have been more interested in headlines surrounding US President Donald Trump’s policy changes and their potential impact on the economic outlook.
Anticipating the PCE: Insights into the Fed’s key inflation metric
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in January, following the 0.2% increase recorded in December. Over the last twelve months, the core PCE inflation is forecast to soften to 2.6% from 2.8%. Meanwhile, the headline annual PCE inflation is seen retreating to 2.5% from 2.6% in the same period.
Following a 25 bps cut in December, lowering the Fed’s policy rate to the 4.25%-4.50% range, the central bank kept interest rates unchanged in the January decision. In the meeting Minutes released on February 19, the central bank removed earlier language suggesting inflation had “made progress” toward its 2% target, instead stating that the pace of price increases “remains elevated” to justify such a pause.
Previewing the PCE inflation report, TD Securities said: “We look for core PCE prices to register a notably weaker advance in January compared to the CPI equivalent’s 0.45% m/m increase. Headline PCE inflation should also come in softer at 0.30%. On a y/y basis, core PCE inflation is likely to drop by a notable three tenths to 2.5%—its lowest level since early 2021. Personal spending also likely fell for the first time since March.”
How will the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index affect EUR/USD?
Market participants will likely react to an unexpected reading in the monthly core PCE Price Index, which is not distorted by base effects. A print of 0.4% or higher in this data could support the US Dollar (USD) with the immediate reaction. On the other hand, a reading below 0.2% could have the opposite effect on the USD’s performance against its major rivals.
Nevertheless, the market reaction is likely to remain short-lived. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors see about a 98% probability of the Fed holding the policy settings unchanged in March and price in a 20% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in May. It will likely take several soft PCE inflation readings in succession before market participants see a stronger probability of a rate reduction in May.
Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shares a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:
“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart edges lower but manages to hold above 50, suggesting that EUR/USD loses upward momentum while keeping a slightly bullish bias.”
“On the downside, 1.0390-1.0380 (50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level of the November-January downtrend) aligns as the first support. In case EUR/USD makes a daily close below this level, technical sellers could take action and open the door for an extended decline toward 1.0300 (static level). Looking north, the first resistance could be spotted at 1.0520 (100-day SMA). Once EUR/USD starts using this level as support, 1.0570 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.0650 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) could be set as next bullish targets.”
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
