Could Gold Reach $4,000 in 2025? Experts Weigh In • Benzinga

With prices blasting past one record high after another for more than two years, investors have a new big question: Could gold reach $4,000 in 2025? 

Some analysts place the new floor at $3,000 an ounce, and they expect the price of gold to average just north of $3,300 through 2025. By the end of the year or early in 2026, they predict it will reach $4,000.

Since 2023, gold prices have risen on strong buying by global central banks, inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainties, which are all trends that remain. But a reversal in these trends, coupled with high prices stunting demand and investors shifting to other investments, could slow the bull run.

Here are some of the predictions and key factors that could send gold prices higher or lower through the second half of 2025.

Gold’s Recent Run-Up: Over $3,000 and Climbing

Since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, gold prices have nearly doubled. Much of that growth has come in the last two years, with gold setting 40 all-time highs in 2024, hitting a high of $2,777.80 per ounce on Oct. 30, and breaking through the previous psychological ceiling of $2,900 on Feb. 11 of this year.

A month later on March 14, the price of gold burst through the $3,000 mark, setting a new floor.

Gold’s performance in 2024 was its best in 14 years, with the precious metal outperforming all major asset classes. The 25.5% rise in gold that year was attributed to demand from global central banks and investors, which offset declining consumer demand, increased military conflicts, the U.S. presidential election and a weakening dollar.

Those same factors have driven gold prices up another 25% through the first half of 2025. Gold traded around $3,350 on July 16.

Expert Predictions: What Analysts Say About Gold in 2025

A number of market watchers remain bullish on gold, with one major outlying forecast hinting at bearishness ahead. The gold price outlook from most analysts emphasizes the precious metal’s continued climb through the second half of 2025.

Consider these gold price predictions by the end of 2025 from major banks:

• Goldman Sachs: $3,700
• J.P. Morgan: $3,675
• Morgan Stanley: $3,800
• UBS: $3,500

Analysts point to global economic uncertainty, a weakening U.S. dollar and the potential for inflation for their bullishness. They also note that higher gold prices may get support from China’s stimulus — allowing insurance funds to invest in gold — and continued buying by retail investors and central banks.

Analysts with Citi are a bit more bearish, however. The bank expects the price of gold to consolidate in the third quarter between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce, driven by safe-haven actions based on geopolitical risks, the impact of U.S. tariffs and concerns over the U.S. budget. 

However, Citi predicts gold prices to drop below $3,000 in late 2025 as the U.S. resolves tariff issues, geopolitical risks slacken and the U.S. economy avoids a hard landing.

Still, Citi gives a bull forecast as much of a chance as its bear forecast, and other major banks expect gold prices to continue to climb toward $4,000 per ounce by 2026.

What’s Driving the Bull Case for $4,000 Gold?

Gold may have taken two years to climb from $2,000 to $3,000 per ounce, but some analysts suggest the pace of the bull rush has quickened, and $4,000 might happen by the end of 2025 or early in 2026.

Analysts argue that a strong structural case remains for prices to continue to rise. Around the globe, investors are picking up gold over concerns of geopolitical unrest and inflation, and to guard against a weakening dollar. That’s on top of buying by central banks —  especially in the BRICS nations of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — that are worried about U.S. debt and the U.S. dollar’s position as a global reserve currency.

In 2024, global central banks added enough gold to push the precious metal past the U.S. dollar as the second-leading reserve asset held. Bank of America, which notified investors in early July that gold may surpass $4,000, says a survey of global monetary authorities shows that 95% of them expect central banks to continue building gold reserves.

The growing reserves in the world’s central banks suggest a shift to de-dollarize their reserves, or move them away from U.S. assets such as Treasuries and other dollar holdings. Central banks and investors are seeking the safe haven of gold for its store of value.

What Could Stop Gold From Reaching $4,000?

While a number of analysts continue to ride the bull on gold, Citi and others are sounding the alarm of headwinds. They argue a significant correction may be coming, with gold prices dropping to $2,500 to $2,700 per ounce in the second half of 2026.

Potential barriers to gold reaching $4,000 include investor demand dropping and improved global economic growth. Higher gold prices could also drive down demand from investors and central banks. Some analysts already note lower buying by central banks in the first quarter of 2025.

Interest in gold may also wane if the U.S. dollar strengthens, making it more expensive for foreign governments to purchase gold, which is priced in U.S. dollars. An economic soft landing could bolster the greenback.

Demographic shifts may also play a role in slowing gold’s roll. A PEW Research study in 2024 found that 68% of investors under 35 would choose cryptocurrency over gold. And the National Digital Reserve Act introduced in the U.S. Senate this year could further legitimize crypto and encroach on gold’s reserve status.

Bottom Line: Is $4,000 Gold a Fantasy or a Forecast?

So could gold reach $4,000 in 2025? While it’s not guaranteed, some analysts believe market momentum and macroeconomic factors (central bank buying, recession concerns and geopolitical uncertainty) support a $4,000 gold price as a credible possibility.

Other analysts see a price pull-back coming as high prices drive investors to other investments and technical signals indicate a shift in momentum.

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