A new wave of wildfire danger looms over the southern and central Plains this week, with bone-dry winds expected across already parched landscapes.
Widespread winds between 25 and 35 miles per hour are forecast, according to the Storm Prediction Center, with central Texas through central and northeastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and western Missouri expecting gusts of 40 miles per hour or more starting Monday.
But it’s not just the strength of the wind that’s of concern. David Roth, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center, said that a recent cold front pushed moisture away from Texas and that offshore winds have continued to keep the air dry. Very little moisture is expected to return on Monday.
“All you really need for fire weather are relative humidities under 20 percent,” Mr. Roth said. As temperatures rise into the 60s and 70s, humidity levels are expected to drop into the teens or even single digits in some places.
“For every 10 miles an hour, a fire can move a mile each day,” he said. “The higher the wind is, the harder it is to control, which also means it’s harder for the firefighters to control.”
The Storm Prediction Center declared a critical fire risk on Monday and Tuesday across eastern New Mexico, central and western Texas, most of Oklahoma and eastern Colorado.
An area of extremely critical risk, the highest category, is in place for the far southeast of New Mexico into northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle starting Tuesday afternoon.
The National Weather Service has also issued red flag warnings, meaning that critical fire weather conditions are either imminent or ongoing. The warnings start Monday and stretch from southern Texas and eastern New Mexico, northward to southern South Dakota, and as far east as Illinois. They also cover much of Oklahoma and central Texas.
Risks return to areas recently burned.
The renewed risk comes just days after a powerful storm system tore across the country late last week, fueling dangerous wildfires in several states. From the Texas Panhandle to the outskirts of Oklahoma City, flames and thick smoke forced evacuations on Friday as fires spread rapidly across drought-stricken land.
In Oklahoma alone, nearly 300 homes and other structures were destroyed, Gov. Kevin Stitt said at a news conference Saturday. Among the hardest hit areas was Stillwater, where about 50 structures were lost.
In Camden County, Mo., officials said that a fire had destroyed about 30 structures and that damage assessments were ongoing. The authorities urged people to avoid traveling as thick clouds of red dirt and dust severely limited visibility.
In Texas, around Lubbock and Amarillo, highway patrol officials reported more than three dozen car crashes. Preliminary reports showed that at least four people had died in crashes near Amarillo, according to the Texas Department of Public Safety.
Fire weather conditions improved in some areas on Sunday, especially in Oklahoma, with lower temperatures and light winds. However, some risk of fire weather remained for parts of central and western Texas, as well as areas in western Nebraska, South Dakota, eastern Wyoming and northeast Colorado.
Winds should be calmer by midweek.
Forecasters expect winds to relax by Wednesday and Thursday, as high pressure builds over the region.
“Thursday would be the day where the firefighters will have the most success at controlling any fires that have gone out of control,” Mr. Roth said.
But by Friday another developing storm system could again raise fire concerns across parts of the central and southern Plains.
“Right now this one is forecast to be weaker, but winds will still be high enough,” Mr. Roth said.
“The storm system from March 14 was a very strong system for March,” he added. “So the fire concerns were broader.”
Although the systems this week are not expected to be as powerful as the one that swept through last week, Mr. Roth said they would most likely be enough to raise serious fire concerns again.
“They will still be sufficient for fire weather,” he said.
