The cryptocurrency community is increasingly optimistic about the approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2025.
This sentiment is reflected in Polymarket, where bettors currently assign an 87% probability to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot XRP ETF by the end of the year.
Ripple’s legal victory fuels optimism for XRP ETF approval
The newly gained confidence in an XRP ETF approval was sparked by the resolution of Ripple’s protracted legal battle against the SEC. With the lawsuit withdrawn, investors are confident that the key barriers previously preventing Ripple’s institutional adoption have been conquered.
Nate Geraci, president of the advisory firm ETF Store, said on X that the approval of an XRP ETF is next. Geraci said it was “obvious” that it was only a “matter of time” before the SEC approved it. He believes that asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity would be involved in offering the asset.
According to the ETFStore President, XRP might see massive adoption if it gains regulatory approval from the SEC. This could make XRP the next altcoin after Ethereum to clinch an ETF.
XRP is currently occupying the fourth position in the cryptocurrency ranking by market cap and is about $2 billion away from claiming the third position from Tether.
Traders on Polymarket show high confidence in XRP ETF
Analysts agree with Geraci, pointing out that the current optimism for XRP ETF approval aligns with the shift in SEC policy. They argue that a regulatory green light for the ETF might not prove difficult with the U.S. now under a more crypto-friendly administration.
An XRP ETF would allow traditional investors to access XRP through regulated financial instruments, further contribute to its adoption, and create additional demand, liquidity, and stability for the price of XRP.
If approved, an XRP ETF will be a significant step forward for Ripple and the wider crypto market. It would act as an onboarding on-ramp for institutional investors, similar to what we witnessed with Bitcoin ETFs.
The average ETF would expose investors to positive exposure to XRP without holding the actual tokens, allaying any concerns regarding storage and security, and the need for law observance. It will also grant XRP legitimacy and thus take up space as one of the most relevant assets in the crypto space.
But while betting market Polymarket pegged the odds at an 87% chance that an XRP ETF would be approved by the end of the year, controversy surrounds the site itself. It is also accused of a governance attack, an alleged attack on its frontends by a whale holder of Universal Market Access (UMA) tokens.
It stems from a $7 million bet placed on whether U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukraine signed a mineral agreement between March 24 and 25. The incident has raised questions about the trustworthiness of certain prediction markets, even as Polymarket maintains its reputation for forecasting accuracy.
Despite this, the growing speculation around an XRP ETF highlights the increasing interest in regulated crypto investment vehicles, and its potential approval could serve as a game-changer for both XRP and the broader digital asset ecosystem.
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