What is happening these days in the crypto market? And what will happen in the future?
The current moment is clearly one of waiting, so it’s a good time to take stock of the situation.
What happened in the crypto market?
Taking the crypto market as a whole, it is noted that the market capitalization has recently recorded new all-time highs.
During the previous cycle, the peak was recorded in November 2021, when for the first time in history, 3 trillion dollars were surpassed. However, that peak was short-lived, and during the subsequent bear-market, it collapsed to 800 billion.
During 2023, there was a return above one trillion dollars, and then at the end of the year, it also returned above 1.5 trillion. For the 2 trillion mark, it was necessary to wait until February 2024, and with the Trump-trade of November, it had also returned above the 3 trillion mark.
However, the climb did not stop there. Despite a drop below 2.4 trillion dollars in April of this year, from May onwards a new climb began that first brought the crypto market capitalization back above 3 trillion, and then continued especially starting from July 9, eventually surpassing the previous record of about 3.7 trillion.
Now it is also above 3.8 trillion, with the peak recorded on July 21 well above 3.9 trillion.
What is happening now in the crypto market?
Despite this, not all crypto are performing well.
The lion’s share is still being taken by Bitcoin, with more than 2.360 billion dollars in capitalization, and a dominance that still exceeds 60%.
However, Ethereum is also recovering very strongly, having risen to just above $3,900 after a difficult start to 2025. It now capitalizes at 461 billion dollars, but it is still far from its all-time highs.
Note that the so-called Total3, which is the crypto market capitalization excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the stablecoin, has not yet updated the all-time highs recorded at the end of 2024. Moreover, these were only slightly higher than the peak of 2021, so it is really only Bitcoin that is making a significant difference from this point of view.
Crypto markets often behave in this way, with Bitcoin dominating for a long time except in relatively brief moments when altcoins momentarily take over.
What will happen: the main forecasts and scenarios
Therefore, even the future evolution of the crypto market at this moment is closely tied to that of Bitcoin.
The point is that everything is relatively at a standstill awaiting the data that will arrive this week from the USA.
In particular, tomorrow, Wednesday, July 30, 2025, the Fed will most likely announce that it has not cut rates this time either, but above all, it should indicate whether it is willing to cut them in September. Jerome Powell’s press conference could stir the waters.
Furthermore, still in relation to the monetary policy of the American central bank, by the end of the week the updated data on the US labor market will also be released, and those could also stir the waters.
During the weekend the traditional stock exchanges will be closed, so it is possible that the bulk of the movements will end up occurring mainly starting from Monday, August 4.
The influence of the dollar
In theory, all of this should be primarily linked to the strength of the US dollar.
In fact, what is happening these days is strengthening it, but in the medium term, the hypothesis that it may weaken is still circulating.
With a weak dollar, Bitcoin should perform better in the markets, while with a strengthening of the American currency, it should suffer a bit.
The crypto markets at this moment are essentially continuing to follow Bitcoin, so this seems to be the dominant dynamic at this juncture.
It should be noted, however, how in the very last weeks the price of Bitcoin has not fallen despite the strengthening of the dollar. There is also the possibility that from now until, for example, the end of the year, the price of BTC may go its own way, different from the usual, with perhaps the inflation of the now classic post-election end-of-year speculative bull.
The crypto markets at that point might also end up following Bitcoin, perhaps with a classic altseason.
The uncertainty of investors
The situation, in reality, is very uncertain.
First of all, it is still not clear what the data coming from the USA will be like this week, and in the coming months.
Furthermore, it is not even clear what Trump will do if the dollar continues to strengthen.
The trade balance of the United States is still very unbalanced, and it seems very difficult that tariffs alone can rebalance it – also because they impact only imports, and not exports.
The USA would also need a weak dollar to boost exports; therefore, in the event of strengthening, it is possible that Trump may intervene in some way.
In theory, any Fed rate cuts should weaken it a bit, but they will be few, slow, and limited. Furthermore, it does not seem that the trend of the strength of the dollar is following that of American interest rates.
Therefore, several possibilities remain open, both related to a potential strengthening of the dollar (perhaps in the short to medium term), and related to a potential weakening of the dollar (in the medium to long term).
