US stock futures rose Sunday night despite missile strikes between Israel and Iran throughout the weekend sending shockwaves throughout global markets. Meanwhile, oil (CL=F) edged higher, building on a surge last week to its highest levels since January.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F), S&P 500 futures (ES=F) rose 0.1%, while contracts tied to the Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) gained 0.2%. The cautious optimism follows a bruising Friday session that saw the Dow plunge more than 700 points in a broad risk-off move.
The geopolitical flare-up comes at a delicate moment for markets already buffeted by tariff insecurity. Friday’s sell-off dragged the major US indexes into negative territory for the week. The Dow (^DJI) ended down 1.3%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) posted weekly losses of 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively. Gold (GC=F) prices rallied alongside oil, with the precious metal drawing safe-haven flows amid rising volatility.
Crude oil jumped out of the gate Sunday evening, with West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures spiking over 6% to nearly to over $76 a barrel, before paring those gains to trade just under $74 a barrel. Brent crude (BZ=F) saw a similar move, trading just short of $78 a barrel at the peak.
The move reflects deepening fears that the conflict between Israel and Iran could disrupt global energy supply, particularly after Tehran hinted it may close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil.
Markets remain on edge after a dramatic weekend of retaliatory strikes targeting energy infrastructure on both sides, heightening fears that the conflict could spill over into a broader regional crisis.
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Looking ahead, investors will be parsing fresh data Monday from the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey for signs of economic resilience, or weakness, ahead of Wednesday’s interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve.
Markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold rates steady. However, climbing oil prices could complicate the Fed’s path forward on inflation. While President Trump has maintained pressure on Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates, current market dynamics may leave little room to budge.
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