- Gold price jumps over 1% higher on Monday on Moody’s downgrading the US’s sovereign debt credit rating on Friday, sending yields higher.
- Some headwinds could emerge with President Trump set to call Russian President Putin about ending the war in Ukraine.
- Gold trades in a tight range, holding above $3,230 to start the week.
Gold (XAU/USD) price pops over 1% on Monday and hits $3,243 at the time of writing, with three main themes at play on Monday. Tensions are brewing in the Middle East with Israel embarking on another massive ground offensive. The military action comes just days after United States (US) President Donald Trump visited the Middle East, though he didn’t visit Israel.
The second main driver is the bond market, where several pension funds and Fixed Income (Bonds) investors will need to reshuffle their holdings after rating agency Moody’s downgraded the US’s sovereign debt credit rating after the market closed on Friday. In lowering the US rating from ‘AAA’ to ‘Aa1’, Moody’s noted that successive US administrations had failed to reverse ballooning deficits and interest costs, BBC reports. This could have repercussions for the Federal Reserve(Fed) and US yields, where non-US parties will ask for higher rates in search of more guarantees before considering buying US debt.
The very last driver this Monday is rather a headwind for the precious metal. US President Trump last week torpedoed peace talks in Istanbul by saying at Air Force One that no deal was possible without himself and Russian President Vladimir Putin involved. Both presidents will have a phone call on Monday to discuss the matter, and could provide headwinds for Gold if a breakthrough is materializing.
Daily digest market movers: Despite higher yields, Gold surges
- A reclusive Chinese billionaire whose prescient Gold trades turned into an eye-catching windfall has now become the country’s biggest Copper bull, amassing a bet worth nearly $1 billion in a market jolted by escalating competition between the US and China, Bloomberg reports.
- Gold is sliding lower as traders respond to fresh uncertainty surrounding the US outlook after Moody’s lowered the nation’s sovereign credit rating. The increase in general angst levels may also be reviving concerns about the potential for lower US and global economic growth, given the drop in crude oil contracts, Bloomberg reports.
- “While we recognize the US’ significant economic and financial strengths, we believe these no longer fully counterbalance the decline in fiscal metrics,” Moody’s added in its statement, Reuters reports.
- The US 30-year yield rose to 5% on Monday after Moody’s rate cut, back to April’s levels.
Gold Price Technical Analysis: Look out for the pop
Did Moody’s just put a band-aid on the wound for the US? Rather, Moody’s calling out is what several traders and analysts were predicting: the US is more quickly racking up debt than it is seeing income. At one point that needs to be addressed, and President Trump might be mad at Moody’s, there is a far greater concern: the domestic activity and economy with elevated rates and the Fed having its hands tied.
On the upside, the pivotal technical level at $3,245 (April 1 high) is acting as resistance and could be difficult to reclaim. Once through there, the R1 resistance at $3,252 and the R2 resistance at $3,301 are the following levels to watch, though a major catalyst would be needed to get it there.
On the other side, the daily Pivot Point stands at $3,203, in line with the $3,200 big figure. In case that level does not hold, expect a move lower to test the support area around $3,150, with the April 3 high at $3,167 and the intraday S1 support at $3,155, before the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,151.
XAU/USD: Daily Chart
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
