Florida, Wisconsin races are a possible glimpse into how Dems and GOP could approach midterms: ANALYSIS
Democrats’ Supreme Court win in Wisconsin and the Republican margin of victory in Florida races serve as a primer for the bigger battle brewing between Republicans and Democrats as the parties gear up for the midterm year.
In Wisconsin, Elon Musk’s consistent presence in the race — the cash giveaways, campaign trail appearances and the posts to his social media — site all seem to have backfired for Republicans backing the conservative Judge Brad Schimel. Additionally, Schimel’s cozying up to President Donald Trump in a technically nonpartisan race wasn’t successful either.
Democrats and liberal judge Susan Crawford, however, were successful in making this race a referendum on the world’s richest man and rallying support on a key issue that may come before the court — reproductive rights. In turn, voters cast ballots to maintain liberal control of the state’s highest court.
Democrat-backed Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Judge Susan Crawford reacts after voters elected her to the state Supreme Court, at her election night headquarters in Madison, Wisconsin, April 1, 2025.
Vincent Alban/Reuters
If Musk continues to intervene in elections in a similar fashion, Democrats may have a winning playbook to replicate. Though, it remains to be seen if this loss will spur Republicans to distance themselves from Musk in future contests or if Trump himself will sour on the idea of Musk as a spokesman for the MAGA movement in critical races.
And even though they lost both special House races in Florida, Democrats made inroads with voters on ruby-red Republican turf.
Republican Congressmen-elect Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine won by double-digit margins but in comparison to their predecessors, the pair of Trump-endorsed Republicans eked out wins that were much narrower.
Randy Fine, Republican nominee for 2025 Florida’s 6th congressional district special election, speaks at a watch party, as Florida holds a special election for a U.S. House of Representatives seat vacated by National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, in Ormond Beach, Florida, April 1, 2025.
Octavio Jones/Reuters
Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz each won by more than 30 points in November. Democratic candidates Josh Weil and Gay Valimont trailed Tuesday’s winners by about half as much.
Still, Republicans relished in the victories.
“The American people sent a clear message tonight: they want elected officials who will advance President Trump’s America First agenda, and their votes can’t be bought by national Democrats,” said Republican Party Chairman Michael Whatley.
While Trump touted the power of his own endorsement for the wins.
“THE TRUMP ENDORSEMENT, AS ALWAYS, PROVED FAR GREATER THAN THE DEMOCRATS FORCES OF EVIL,” he posted to social media.
A key takeaway for the GOP: Wins may have to be harder-fought than in the past as anti-Trump sentiment mobilizes voters in the reddest of areas.
Democrats celebrated putting Republicans on defense, already looking to capitalize on Tuesday’s energy as they look toward 2026, their next big chance to reclaim some power in a Republican-led Washington.
“Republicans everywhere know a reckoning is coming — Democrats are taking the majority in 2026,” Democratic Party Chair Ken Martin said in a statement Tuesday. Adding in a separate statement, “Make no mistake: The momentum is on our side.”
