‘Happy Statistics, Unhappy People’: Rewane Breaks Down Nigeria’s 3.13% GDP Growth, Interest Rate Retention, and What It Means for Nigerians

Last week, Nigeria was awash with official data, led by the report from the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) that the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded 3.3% growth in the second quarter of 2025. With the buzz the numbers are generating, renowned economist Bismarck Rewane is urging caution: numbers may be improving, but if people don’t feel the impact, then the celebration is misplaced.

In a sweeping review of the country’s macroeconomic outlook, Rewane weighed in on the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) decision to retain the benchmark interest rate at 27.5%, the recently released 3.13% GDP growth figures, and the strengthening of the naira—warning that while these indicators reflect progress, the lived reality for many Nigerians is still grim.

Speaking in an interview with ChannelsTV, following the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) latest decision, Rewane described the CBN’s rate retention as a conservative but wise move.

“The market was divided. Some felt it was time to bring down rates by 25 basis points. Others wanted it retained. I think the committee did the right thing,” he said.

Over the past two years, interest rates have been raised six times, held steady three times, and only cut once, resulting in a cumulative increase of 8.75%. Inflation, though still troubling, has shown a gradual decline during that period.

Rewane underscored that the MPC was being cautious due to persistent vulnerabilities at home and global uncertainties abroad.

“Inflation is still a hydra-headed beast,” he warned. “You don’t go precipitously to reduce rates and then backtrack.”

He pointed to modest improvements: the naira has appreciated about 6.6% over two months, trading around N1,528 to the dollar, stronger in the parallel market than in the official window, a rare occurrence in more than a decade. Logistics costs have eased, and petrol prices fell by 4.4% to N865 per liter in the last month. Yet, these are far from signs of a fully recovered economy.

While Nigeria’s GDP figures for the first half of 2025 offered cause for optimism, showing a growth rate of 3.13%, Rewane was quick to temper expectations.

“It’s not yet Uhuru,” he said, reiterating that the GDP growth must translate into better living conditions. The country, now the fourth largest economy in Africa behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria, has a rebased GDP of around $250 billion.

In the world, it is number 40. The goal before was for Nigeria to be within the top 20 countries in the world. We are now number 40. The income per head in Nigeria is $1,000 compared to South Africa, where it’s $5,000. Our share of global GDP is 0.23% and our share of the global population is 2.9%. This economic growth shows an upward trend.

“Well, we still have work to do. And let me make it clear, the goal, as pointed out by the president, is that we should be at $1 trillion by 2030. Today, we are growing at 3.1%. For us to go from $250 billion to $1 trillion, we need to grow at 15%. That’s not going to happen quickly except certain things change,” he said.

Despite the little gain the naira recorded, Rewane warned that the currency’s future remains shaky. The naira has appreciated 8% year-to-date, but largely against a weakened dollar. Compared to the pound and euro, its performance is less impressive. He cautioned that if crude oil prices fall below $65 per barrel, the gains in the naira’s value could be wiped out quickly.

“Nigeria is playing it safe to avoid market flip-flops. What we’ve earned is a reputation of being cautious, stable, and consistent,” he said, emphasizing that price stability remains a central mandate for the CBN.

On inflation’s toll on households, Rewane painted a bleak picture. “Last year, in July, a bag of rice cost N84,000. It’s now N87,000. That’s up 3.57%, though it had previously dropped before rebounding,” he explained.

Wheat flour has jumped from N59,500 to N65,000, while chicken drumsticks are now N5,500, up 22%. Eggs rose 5.7% to N5,500, pepper soared 50% to N90,000, and tomatoes spiked 83%. Only garri saw a decline, from N46,000 to N33,000.

In the non-food category, costs continue to climb. Transport fares from Lagos to Benin rose from N25,000 to N28,250. Airfares from Lagos to Abuja have surged 31% from N152,000 to N200,000. Lonart syrup, a common malaria medication, rose from N3,800 to N4,600. Only cooking gas became more affordable, dropping from N15,060 to N11,875.

“That’s good, but you have to have the food to cook. Right now, you have the gas, but there’s hardly any food to cook in it,” he said.

Rewane emphasized that Nigeria must shift from simply celebrating statistical growth to ensuring an inclusive economic impact.

“What we want to avoid are happy statistics and unhappy people. How are we going to do that? You can grow as much as you want. You can do all, it must be about the welfare of the people. The people must feel it, must be happy about it. If not, you will have happy statistics and unhappy people,” he said.

He stressed the need for redistribution and economic planning that prioritizes poverty reduction and job creation. According to Rewane, the path forward requires deliberate efforts to close the gap between macroeconomic success and household realities.