How strong will Tropical Storm Melissa get and where will it go? See the timeline

Florida residents should keep a close eye on Tropical Storm Melissa, which is expected to strengthen into a powerful Category 4 hurricane, although current predictions for a Florida impact are low.

That forecast may change in the coming days. The National Hurricane Center warned rapid intensification appears likely this weekend and early next week for Melissa, which Thursday, Oct. 23, was slowly moving in the central Caribbean.

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As Melissa intensifies, its wind field is expected to grow and become more symmetric, NHC forecasters said.

Could Melissa impact Florida?

“The longer Melissa tracks to the west, the greater the chance of an impact on the U.S.,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

“The chances of a direct U.S. hit from Melissa are low right now, but it is still an option,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “The U.S. concern for impacts will be in the Florida Peninsula, especially the lower portion of the Peninsula and the Keys.”

Even the East Coast of the U.S. could feel some impacts from Melissa — rain, wind and rough seas — later this month, even if the center remains at sea, according to AccuWeather.

Here’s what you should know.

Where is Tropical Storm Melissa right now? See projected path

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. 

Satellite photos, graphics of Tropical Storm Melissa

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Melissa

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

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How strong is Tropical Storm Melissa expected to get? See the timeline

• As of 5 a.m., Oct. 23: 50 mph

• 24 hours, Oct. 24: 60 mph

• 48 hours:, Oct. 25 70 mph

• 60 hours: 80 mph, Category 1 hurricane

• 72 hours, Oct. 26 100 mph, Category 2 hurricane

• 96 hours, Oct. 27: 120 mph, Category 3 hurricane

• 120 hours, Oct. 28: 130 mph, Category 4 hurricane

Map shows location, strength of Tropical Storm Melissa 5 a.m. Thursday, Oct. 23

As of 5 a.m. Thursday, Oct. 23, Tropical Storm Melissa was located at 15.0N 74.9W. Maximum sustained winds were 50 mph.

Map shows predicted location, strength of Tropical Storm Melissa Friday, Oct. 24

On Friday, Oct. 24, Melissa was predicted to be at 15.6N 75.0W. Maximum sustained winds were predicted to reach 60 mph.

Map shows predicted location, strength of Tropical Storm Melissa Saturday, Oct. 25

On Saturday, Oct. 25, Melissa was predicted to be at 16.4N 75.1W. Maximum sustained winds were predicted to reach 70 mph. To be classified as a hurricane, maximum sustained winds need to reach 74 mph.

Map shows predicted location, strength of Tropical Storm Melissa Sunday, Oct. 26

On Sunday, Oct. 26, Melissa was predicted to be at 16.7N 76.0W. Maximum sustained winds were predicted to reach 100 mph, making Melissa a Category 2 hurricane.

Map shows predicted location, strength of Tropical Storm Melissa Monday, Oct. 27

On Monday, Oct. 27, Melissa was predicted to be at 16.9N 77.0W. Maximum sustained winds were predicted to reach 120 mph, making Melissa a Category 3 hurricane.

Map shows predicted location, strength of Tropical Storm Melissa Tuesday, Oct. 28

On Tuesday, Oct. 28, Melissa was predicted to be at 17.1N 78.0W. Maximum sustained winds were predicted to reach 130 mph, making Melissa a Category 4 hurricane.

Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?

Not at this time but Florida residents should stay informed.

“There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Melissa,” the National Hurricane Center said, adding “this is a very challenging track forecast” and “the intensity forecast has its own share of challenges.”

“Most of the guidance shows significant or even rapid intensification in days 3-5. The day 5 forecast (Monday, Oct. 27) now shows Melissa becoming a major hurricane,” with 120-mph winds, the National Hurricane Center said.

“The longer Melissa tracks to the west, the greater the chance of an impact on the U.S.,” Rayno said.

“The U.S. concern for impacts will be in the Florida Peninsula, especially the lower portion of the Peninsula and the Keys. Strong westerly winds, driven by the jet stream, should prevent the storm from tracking into Texas, Louisiana and the panhandles of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida next week.”

“At this time, I think the chances of any direct or even indirect impacts on Florida, beyond waves and rip currents, are very low, around 15% or so,” said DaSilva via email Oct. 21.

“If Florida were to see any impacts, it would likely be around the middle of next week — Wednesday through Friday (Oct. 29-31). There’s nothing imminent right now, but it’s something to keep an eye on over the next few days as we monitor trends and model data.”

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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Tropical Storm Melissa timeline of projected path, strength