The National Hurricane Center has started tracking a trough of low pressure with a low chance of tropical development over the next couple of days as it moves westward over the northern Gulf.
AccuWeather meteorologists spotted some swirling along the front’s tail off Florida’s eastern coast, extending to the northern Bahamas. If it continues to organize and intensify, it could become a tropical depression or even Tropical Storm Dexter, the next named storm.
A low-pressure system off the northeast coast of Florida is expected to bring rain, possible flash flooding to much of the state from July 23 through July 25, 2025, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
The NHC expects the system to develop slowly and move inland over the weekend, which would end its chances for development.
The Florida Panhandle will see heavy rain through Saturday, regardless of how any potential tropical development plays out. AccuWeather warns that some portions along the Gulf Coast could see between 3-6 inches of rainfall.
Here is what Florida Panhandle residents should know about the tropical disturbance.
What impacts will Florida see from the tropical disturbance
The tropical disturbance will move west-southwest into the north-central Gulf over the next couple of days, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms along the Interstate 10 corridor, according to AccuWeather.
“The first and most widespread impact will be torrential downpours that can lead to flash flooding as the thunderstorms and showers spread westward and persist along the upper Gulf Coast,” AccuWeather Senior On-Air Meteorologist Geoff Cornish said.
“Rough surf and rip currents may also become a problem for swimmers around the thunderstorms and especially if some tropical development occurs,” he continued.
AccuWeather warns that 3-6 inches of rain could fall within a relatively small time frame along the upper Gulf Coast, where downpours persist.
Flash flooding, dangerous surf, lightning strikes and the potential for a couple of tornadoes and waterspouts are other potential hazards from the system.
Florida Panhandle beaches stretching from Pensacola Beach to Destin will start to see moderate rip current risks on Thursday. Friday’s rip current risks will be high before falling back to moderate on Saturday, according to the National Weather Service’s five-day rip current risk.
Pensacola is expected to start seeing showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical disturbance on Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation chances rise to 70%, with new rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday will see a 90% chance of rain, with rainfall totals mirroring Wednesday’s. Friday’s chance of showers and thunderstorms tops out at 80%, subsiding to 60% by Saturday. Sunday has a chance of storms as the front’s tail leaves the area, but should be mostly sunny.
Pensacola area remains under heat advisory, but tropical disturbance will bring temporary relief
Escambia, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties remained under a heat advisory on Wednesday. Expecting heat index values up to 111 degrees, the National Weather Service office in Mobile, Alabama, issued the warning until 6 p.m. on Wednesday.
Temperatures are forecast to drop below 90 degrees on Thursday and Friday as the bulk of the impending front moves through the area, bringing some much-needed relief from the massive heat dome sitting over the Missouri Valley.
Relief will be short-lived, however. High temperatures will creep back up to the low-90s over the weekend before hitting a sweltering 97 degrees early next week.
National Hurricane Center tracks three tropical waves in the Atlantic
There is plenty of tropical activity happening throughout the Atlantic aside from the tropical disturbance sitting off the Florida coast. The National Hurricane Center is tracking three tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic, central Atlantic and another east of the Lesser Antilles.
Far eastern Atlantic tropical wave:
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Location: Near longitude 24°W, stretching from about 3°N to 18°N latitude.
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Pressure: There is a weak low-pressure area (1015 millibars) around 11°N on this wave.
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Movement: West at about 10 knots (around 11.5 mph).
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Impacts: The wave is produced moderate scattered showers and thunderstorms between 11°N and 14°N, near longitude 23°W to 25°W.
Central Atlantic tropical wave:
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Location: Near longitude 41°W, from approximately 4°N to 17°N latitude.
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Pressure: No information provided at this time.
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Movement: West at 10 to 15 knots (between 12 to 17 mph)
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Impacts: The wave is produced isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8°N and 12°N, near longitude 38°W to 42°W.
Large tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles:
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Location: Near longitude 58°W, stretching from 4°N to 18°N latitude.
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Pressure: No information provided at this time.
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Movement: West at 15 to 20 knots (around 17 to 23 mph).
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Impacts: The wave is produced scattered showers and thunderstorms between 10°N and 16°N, near longitude 54°W to 61°W.
What are tropical waves and why do we track them?
The term “tropical wave” envisions a large physical wave of water making its way across the Atlantic or Caribbean. Menacingly, thanks to its association with tropical storms.
In actuality, tropical waves aren’t seen with our eyes. The term describes big ripples or waves within the atmosphere. What we can see are the clouds, rain and thunderstorms that tropical waves are known to produce.
The National Weather Service describes a tropical wave as an “elongated area of relatively low pressure moving east to west across the tropics,” which is also referred to as easterly waves.
A low-pressure area is another weather term that describes an area where the atmospheric pressure is lower than the surrounding air. Air rises in low-pressure areas, which leads to cloud formation and potential shower and thunderstorm activity. The rising air also creates wind as the air rushes to fill the space.
Low-pressure areas happen all over the place, but when they happen over the tropics, it’s worth monitoring because the pattern described above, combined with warm water, is what fuels hurricane development and intensification.
AccuWeather estimates that 85% of all tropical development can be traced back to tropical waves, making them important to track.
Pensacola weather radar
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Hurricane Center warns of downpours, flooding in Florida Panhandle
