The Indian Rupee (INR) opens lower around 88.90 against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, tracking overnight gains in the United States (US) currency, which came on the back of receding trade tensions between Washington and China.
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto Monday’s gains near 99.25.
Trade tensions between the US and China started waning after Beijing confirmed that high-level talks between both nations are still going on, but accused Washington of adopting discriminatory policies and abusing export policies.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea in late October, with the aim of resolving issues regarding US chip technologies and rare earth controls.
“President Trump said that the tariffs would not go into effect until November 1. He will be meeting with Party Chair Xi in Korea. I believe that meeting will still be on,” Bessent said in an interview with Fox Business Network on Monday, Reuters reported.
On the monetary policy front, investors await the speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting in Philadelphia at 16:20 GMT. Investors would like to know the pace at which the Fed will continue loosening its monetary policy in the near term.
The table below shows the percentage change of Indian Rupee (INR) against listed major currencies today. Indian Rupee was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | INR | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.12% | 0.05% | -0.36% | 0.09% | 0.72% | 0.15% | -0.21% | |
| EUR | 0.12% | 0.17% | -0.23% | 0.20% | 0.88% | 0.26% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | -0.05% | -0.17% | -0.40% | 0.04% | 0.70% | 0.11% | -0.25% | |
| JPY | 0.36% | 0.23% | 0.40% | 0.47% | 1.07% | 0.49% | 0.12% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | -0.20% | -0.04% | -0.47% | 0.67% | 0.05% | -0.29% | |
| AUD | -0.72% | -0.88% | -0.70% | -1.07% | -0.67% | -0.55% | -0.96% | |
| INR | -0.15% | -0.26% | -0.11% | -0.49% | -0.05% | 0.55% | -0.36% | |
| CHF | 0.21% | 0.08% | 0.25% | -0.12% | 0.29% | 0.96% | 0.36% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Indian Rupee from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent INR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: Indian Rupee weakens against its peers
- The Indian Rupee is expected to remain under pressure amid firming expectations that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could cut the Repo Rate further in the last policy meeting of the year in December.
- RBI’s dovish bets have accelerated due to escalating fears of retail inflation undershooting the central bank’s tolerance band of 2%-6%. This is the second time in the last three months when the retail inflation has grown at an annual pace lower than 2%.
- On Monday, the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation reported that the retail inflation grew by 1.54% in September, the slowest growth in price pressures seen since June 2017. Economists had anticipated the inflation data to come in at 1.7%, lower than 2.07% in August.
- This year, the RBI has already reduced its Repo Rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 5.5%. In the June policy, the Indian central bank announced a bigger reduction in the repo rate by 50 bps, citing that it is front-loading rate cuts to boost the economy.
- Meanwhile, trade tensions between India and the US over New Delhi buying oil from Russia have been a major drag on the Indian Rupee. This has also kept overseas investors away from the Indian stock markets. However, a slowdown in the pace of foreign investors paring stake in Indian equities has been observed in the past few trading days.
- From October 7-10, FIIs turned out to be net buyers in Indian stock markets and invested Rs. 3,289.30 crores. However, they sold a stake worth Rs. 240.10 crores on Monday.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR stays above 20-day EMA
The Indian Rupee continues to hold its all-time low around 89.10 against the US Dollar for almost 20 days. The near-term trend of the pair remains bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 88.71.
However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below the 60.00-80.00 range, suggesting that the bullish momentum is over for now.
Looking down, the pair could slide to near the September 12 high of 88.57 and the 20-day EMA.
On the upside, the pair could extend the rally towards the round figure of 90.00 if it breaks above the current all-time high of 89.12.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The India Consumer Price Index released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the INR, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).
Read more.
