Inflation ticked higher in July, according to new government data released Tuesday as investors stay alert to how much President Trump’s tariffs are starting to affect consumer costs.
The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that “core” inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 3.1% over the past year in July, ahead of June’s 2.9% increase and an indication that rising goods inflation is no longer being offset by easing services inflation.
Monthly core prices increased 0.3%, also surpassing the prior month’s 0.2% uptick and marking the largest gain in six months. Heading into the report, economists had expected core CPI to rise 3.0% year over year and 0.3% month over month.
On a headline basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 2.7% on an annual basis in July, matching June’s number and slower than economist expectations of a 2.8% rise. Month over month, prices rose 0.2% compared to June’s 0.3% increase, on par with economists’ estimates. The monthly drop was driven by lower gasoline prices and moderately softer food inflation.
Tuesday’s report arrives amid ongoing trade developments that could further alter the US effective tariff rate, now hovering near 18.6% — the highest since 1933, according to the latest Yale Budget Lab estimate.
The back-and-forth raises fresh questions about the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting path.
Shortly following the report, investors placed a 90% probability the Fed cuts rates by 0.25% at its September policy meeting, up from 57% last month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Traders still expect over two rate cuts by December.
This is a breaking news report and will be updated.
Allie Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at alexandra.canal@yahoofinance.com.
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