- The Japanese Yen remains on the back foot against the USD for the second consecutive day.
- Concerns about Trump’s trade tariffs and a positive risk tone undermine the safe-haven JPY.
- The divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations should limit any meaningful downside for the JPY.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) sticks to its negative bias against a mildly positive US Dollar (USD), allowing the USD/JPY pair to gain some positive traction for the second straight day on Tuesday and hold steady above the 148.00 mark through the Asian session. Concerns that Trump could impose fresh tariffs on Japan, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, turn out to be key factors undermining the safe-haven JPY.
Data released earlier today showed that Japan’s annual wholesale inflation – Producer Price Index (PPI) – rose 4.0% in February, underscoring broadening inflationary pressure. Adding to this hopes that bumper wage hikes seen last year will continue this year remain supportive of the growing market acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates further. This might hold back the JPY bears from placing aggressive bets.
Moreover, the recent sharp narrowing of the rate differential between Japan and other countries should contribute to limiting losses for the lower-yielding JPY. The USD, on the other hand, might struggle to lure buyers amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates several times this year amid worries about a tariff-driven US economic slowdown. This, in turn, should cap the USD/JPY pair ahead of the US consumer inflation figures.
Japanese Yen is pressured by concerns about Trump’s trade tariffs and positive risk tone
- US President Donald Trump on Tuesday threatened a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum from Canada, though he reversed course after Ontario paused surcharges on electricity to US customers. Earlier, Japan’s Trade Minister Yoji Muto said that he has failed to win assurances from US officials that Japan will be exempt from steel tariffs, which take effect on Wednesday.
- The lower house of Congress narrowly passed a Republican spending bill that would avoid a government shutdown on March 14 and keep the US government open until September. The bill now heads to the Senate and will need the support of at least seven Democrats to overcome the 60-vote filibuster threshold before being sent to Trump for his signature.
- Data published by the Bank of Japan this Wednesday showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) slowed to a 4.0% year-on-year rate in February from 4.2% in the previous month. Given that consumer inflation in Japan has exceeded the central bank’s target for nearly three years, the latest PPI supports prospects for further monetary policy tightening by the BoJ.
- BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, when asked about the recent rise in long-term rate, said that we don’t see a big divergence between our view and that of the markets. It is natural for long-term rates to move in a way that reflects the market’s outlook for the short-term policy rate. The rise in long-term rates, however, is likely to push up the cost of funding government finances.
- Japan’s largest companies are expected to offer substantial wage hikes for a third consecutive year, helping workers cope with inflation and retain staff amid labour shortages. Higher wages are crucial for BoJ policy decisions, as well as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s efforts to boost consumer spending amid stagnant real wage growth.
- The yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond remains close to its highest level since October 2008 touched on Monday. In contrast, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield remains close to a multi-month low touched earlier this March amid concerns about a tariff-driven US economic slowdown and bets for more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
- In fact, market participants are now pricing in about three rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the Fed by the end of this year. The bets were lifted by Friday’s weaker US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which pointed to signs of a cooling US labor market. This keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level since mid-October and caps the upside for the USD/JPY pair.
- Traders also seem reluctant and opt to wait for the release of the US consumer inflation figures before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. The crucial Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will play a key role in influencing expectations about the Fed’s rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive USD demand and provide a fresh impetus to the currency pair.
USD/JPY is more likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near 148.60-148.70 zone
From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the downside and any further move up is likely to remain capped near the 148.60-148.70 horizontal support breakpoint. However, some follow-through buying, leading to a subsequent strength beyond the 149.00 mark, might trigger a short-covering rally towards the 149.70-149.75 intermediate resistance en route to the 150.00 psychological mark.
On the flip side, the 147.25 area now seems to act as immediate support ahead of the 147.00 round figure and the 146.55-146.50 zone, or a multi-month trough touched on Tuesday. A break below the latter might turn the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall toward the 146.00 round figure. The downward trajectory could eventually drag spot prices to the 145.00 psychological mark with some intermediate support near the 145.40-145.35 zone.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
