Elon Musk has taken a leading role in online prediction markets as his AI firm xAI announced the integration of its AI chatbot Grok with Kalshi on Thursday.
This follows a similar xAI agreement with Polymarket in June, its first partnership in this area, showing Musk’s growing reach in the market.
Kalshi, the company that got a lot of attention with a made-with-AI commercial during this year’s NBA Finals, said Grok will join its platform to offer context on price shifts and help users understand market movements. The AI-built spot aired during the Finals and grabbed attention for its technical feat.
The company said the chatbot will explain changes and highlight key trends.
Grok has already faced criticism. In May, it commented on alleged “white genocide” in South Africa without prompt, and earlier this month, it praised Adolf Hitler while talking about Texas floods, spreading antisemitic remarks.
When asked if these episodes raised concerns, a Kalshi spokesperson said, “Kalshi’s feelings about the partnership are excitement only.”
Prediction markets operate like betting sites, showing real-time odds depending on how much money people risk on outcomes. They let users wager on events such as elections and natural disasters.
Musk said prediction markets are more accurate than polls
Supporters point to the “wisdom of the crowd,” and Musk has said these platforms are “more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.” Other firms like Robinhood and Interactive Brokers also offer similar services. They offer prop bets on real-world outcomes.
In April, Kalshi’s CEO Mansour told The Motley Fool that platforms with “skin in the game” give the best forecasts because money at stake keeps users honest. “People don’t lie when their money is involved,” he added.
A video announcing the Kalshi-xAI deal showed Grok giving a “Market Summary” on the question “Will Elon Musk create a new political party this year?”
Both Polymarket and Kalshi cover a wide range of bets
The sites cover a wide range of wagers. Across both platforms, dozens of different markets are available. Polymarket lists a 16% chance of a 2025 meteor strike.
Other bets range from celebrity divorces to Israel’s projected strike in Syria. This Monday, users placed $7 million on whether Astronomer’s CEO Byron would step down after a viral Coldplay kiss cam clip.
Polymarket first gained attention in the 2024 election between Donald Trump and then-President Joe Biden. The site stayed active when VP Kamala Harris entered the race.
Between August and October, its odds flipped between Harris and Trump before settling on Trump as the favorite. In October, four accounts linked to a single person bet more than $28 million on Trump’s win, and trading volume on the race was nearly $3.7 billion.
“On Polymarket, it looked like a done deal, and if you were just watching TV, you would think it’s neck and neck,” CEO Shayne Coplan said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” after the election.
Polymarket has been barred in the U.S. since 2022, when it paid a $1.4 million penalty to the CFTC, but it is about to reopen to American users.
Earlier this month, the Justice Department and the CFTC dropped their investigations, and the company bought derivatives exchange QCX.
“A lot of people want peace of mind, or they’re anxious and they want to know what’s going to happen. That’s why they tune into the news. That’s why they tune into X. And now that there’s this other data point, which is the Polymarket,” Coplan said. He added that Polymarket was “not profitable,” even as it plans to grow.
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