00:00 Speaker A
And Patrick, uh, would be remiss to not talk to you about Nvidia. Nvidia taking a five and a half billion dollar hit due to export controls. The stock dropping significantly off the back of that. Just barely above the flat line today. CEO Jensen Huang is in Beijing according to state media. Talk to me about what this tit for tat over tariffs means for Nvidia? Just how big a headwind is it for Nvidia to be able to beat the streets sky high estimates moving forward?
00:45 Patrick
Yeah, so, H20 while the five and a half billion dollar right off is, is not zero, uh, I, I think the biggest risk here is, is if this escalates and with Nvidia doing, Nvidia, Intel, and AMD doing between 20 and 30% of their business inside of China. That’s the biggest threat that escalates and gets into not just data center accelerators, but also, uh, notebook GPUs, gaming GPUs, uh, CPUs from AMD, uh, and Intel.
01:53 Speaker A
And so, with that in mind at this juncture for investors that are trying to best game out, what they’re seeing actually in some of the options AI market as well. I mean, this is a potential 11% move to the upside or downside by this next time Nvidia reports earnings. What should they be kind of looking at as either a psychological marker or perhaps a technical marker that, uh, determines whether or not this is a safe level to invest.
02:35 Patrick
Yeah, I think looking at the psychological marker, which is, uh, and not too many people are talking about this. I think the Trump administration has painted itself into a little bit of a corner and is trying to find a way to get out of this, uh, because they know that if you bring down Apple, you bring down Nvidia, you’re tanking the market. So, I feel pretty confident over the next 90 days that this is going to be resolved. Uh, I think it’ll be hard for Nvidia to give a rock solid forecast, but I do think that they will give one based on the information they know and then out the other side of their mouth, they’re going to say these are, these are the risks, uh, of that forecast.
04:04 Speaker A
So then, Patrick, which chips name should investors who have a long-term horizon be invested in right now?
04:16 Patrick
Long-term horizon, five years, I believe that the best bet is Intel. And that might come as surprise to everybody out there, but it’s trading near book value. Uh, its 18A and 14A process are on schedule. We’re going to continue to have a, a plus on US company, US built semiconductors. All Intel has to do is hit a couple of, uh, uh, not home runs, just getting to second base and you’re going to see, uh, you’re going to see Intel move, uh, a ton. And also, Lipu Tan, we haven’t seen any of the big decisions that he’s made yet as a new CEO and I think whatever he puts out there, uh, whether it’s massive job cuts, uh, R&D cuts, uh, sale of assets, uh, he just, uh, unloaded Altera. I think these will be positive, uh, news for investors with Intel.
05:57 Speaker A
Yeah, I was just about to acknowledge that, Patrick. It’s a larger question of how much of the business as we know it right now is still intact, or if there’s a kind of sum of parts that we’re going to be looking at in the future. Patrick, as always, thanks so much for taking the time.
06:18 Patrick
Thank you.
