Lara Trump, Roy Cooper in the mix as Tillis retirement ignites fierce North Carolina Senate race

Republican Sen. Thom Tillis’ decision not to seek reelection is jolting what was already expected to be a fierce battle in North Carolina to either challenge him or flip his seat, which will now be wide open in 2026.

Without Tillis on the ballot, Republicans have been floating their ideal candidate to hold onto their slim majority in the Senate, many of whom are less critical of President Donald Trump than Tillis, including allies Michael Whatley, chairman of the GOP, and the president’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump.

A Republican National Committee official waved ABC News off the notion that Whatley, who used to lead the North Carolina GOP, was leaving his post, saying that Whatley currently has no plans to look at another office for the time being.

“Chairman Whatley is focused on serving the president and working with his team to protect and expand our Republican majorities in the midterms,” the official, who was granted anonymity to discuss deliberations, said.

Lara Trump, who also faces mounting external pressure to run in her native North Carolina, told Fox News Radio on Monday that she would certainly consider the possibility.

“North Carolina is my home state. It’s where I was born and raised. It made me the person I am today…if it works out and the timing works, and it works out for my family, it is absolutely something that I would consider doing,” she explained.

President Trump told reporters on Tuesday that he’d be excited for his daughter-in-law to run: “Somebody that would really be great is Lara. She grew up there … Lara Trump, I mean, that would always be my first choice.”

But he added later that he hasn’t talked to her directly about the potential bid, and that other Republicans could be successful, too.

“I don’t know who the candidates are going to be. I think you can have one of the congressmen step up,” he said.

Lara Trump, who ruled out a Senate run in Florida earlier in the year, would likely be the frontrunner if she entered. Other potential contenders, like Rep. Pat Harrigan said Tuesday in a post on X that he would back Lara Trump if she chose to run.

“There’s lots of excitement around the 2026 Senate race, but let me be crystal clear about something: if @LaraLeaTrump enters this race, I’ll be the first to endorse her and the first to fight for her victory,” Harrigan wrote.

In addition to Trump, other North Carolina Republicans who could be considering Senate bids including Reps. Greg Murphy and Addison McDowell, sources familiar with the situation told ABC News. North Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson, who chairs the campaign arm of House Republicans, said on Tuesday he would not run.

Regardless of the candidate, the North Carolina GOP said in a statement it feels confident that another Republican will take Tillis’ place.

“Senator Tillis has announced his decision to not seek re-election to the U.S. Senate and we wish him well in his retirement from public service. As we move forward into the midterm elections, we will hold this seat for Republicans in 2026 and continue to deliver on President Trump’s America First priorities,” North Carolina GOP Chairman Jason Simmons said.

Democrats disagree and find Tillis’ retirement an opportunity to make up for ground the lost in 2024. Former U.S. Rep. Wiley Nickel has already announced a run, and wrote on X on Sunday, “Thom Tillis is out. No matter which MAGA loyalist Trump picks, I’m the only Democrat in this race and I’m ready to win.”

Yet the candidate atop North Carolina Democrats’ wish list is their former governor, Roy Cooper. A spokesperson for Cooper told ABC News he’s strongly considering a run and will announce his decision “in the coming weeks.”

Anderson Clayton, the chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party, told ABC News in an interview Monday that as she has been “going around the state and going around all my different counties, what I’ve heard the most from folks is that they would love to see Governor Cooper get in this race.”

But Clayton, even as she praised Cooper’s strong approval ratings and the desire among many for him to run, pointed to a “bench” of others she said were strong candidates, including Nickel and Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt. A spokesperson for Hunt’s lieutenant governor campaign told ABC News that Hunt believes Cooper will run but that “if the field shifts, she’ll give it thoughtful consideration.”

Clayton said she believes Democrats will handily flip the seat no matter who is on the ticket.

“I think that the Republican Party is running away from Thom Tillis, which is what we saw from the announcement [Sunday] … We immediately saw the president deciding that he was going to find a primary challenger for Tillis. And I think it shows that North Carolina Democrats are in a prime position to be able to take this seat, especially now that it’s an open seat,” she said.

She said the party had also seen an influx in donations and volunteers since Tillis announced his retirement.

Cooper would be “a real powerhouse” if he decided to enter the race, Davidson College political science professor Susan Roberts told ABC News. She contrasted Cooper with the progressive New York Assembly member Zohran Mamdani, the presumptive Democratic primary nominee for mayor of New York City.

“[Cooper] may not be the shiniest object [or] have the campaign that helped Mamdani in the New York mayor’s primary, he may not have that shiny social media presence, but I think he has the gravitas to be a good candidate, and I think he would know how to govern,” Roberts said.

Mac McCorkle, a professor at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy, said Lara Trump’s powerful name recognition could clear the Republican primary field.

“The other Republicans who were thinking about it are kind of no-names,” McCorkle said. “I think it’s Lara Trump’s to refuse.”

He said while less-known candidates might need to take positions heavily to the right to win over “the MAGA base” in the primary, Lara Trump’s connection to President Trump could help her gain support without having to do so, making her more appealing to moderate voters later on in the general election.

On the other hand, Jason Roberts, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, saw Lara Trump’s family connection to the president as a potential disadvantage.

“Midterm elections typically don’t go well for the president’s party, because the out-party is fired up. The in-party typically doesn’t have as high a turnout,” Roberts said. “What successful presidential party candidates do in a midterm is they try to distinguish themselves from that president. And if you’re running a candidate whose last name is Trump, that’s going to be really, really difficult to do.”

ABC News’ Hannah Demissie and Benjamin Siegel contributed to this report.