Toncoin (TON), the crypto of the Telegram ecosystem, is going through a clearly bearish phase with its price struggling to find new demand in the market.
The currency loses about 33% from the local highs of December, highlighting the decline in investor interest compared to the golden period of 2024.
Despite this, the price forecasts for 2025 show a stunning bull scenario for TON.
Let’s analyze the situation below.
The price of TON has been in sharp decline since December: what’s happening?
For about 2 months the price of Toncoin (TON) seems bound to the downside in a vortex of continuous “lower-high” and “lower-low” on a daily time frame.
The cryptocurrency of the Telegram ecosystem, following a 2024 of strong expansion, is in a typically bearish chart pattern.
The prices have continuously fallen from the local high of 7.2 dollars, reached on December 3, down to the current level of 4.8 dollars.
Overall, TON has lost 32.7% of its value, equivalent to 10.7 billion in market capitalization.
More specifically, the crypto assets entered a bear trend starting from December 17, when it crossed below the EMA 50, breaking the support of 6 dollars.
From that moment on, there was no way for the bull to regain control of the situation, further aggravated by the continuous issuance of new tokens by Telegram.
Consider that every day, 85,695 new TON are issued, with a value of over 400,000 dollars.
The trading volumes have significantly decreased while the RSI index indicates a momentum of weak bull strength.
Attention for this crypto has dropped drastically with the advent of AI agents and with the return of memecoin mania.
Both of these narratives have contributed to draining liquidity from the altcoin sector, negatively impacting the price of TON.
At this point, it will be crucial to resist further incursions below the key level of 4.5 dollars, in order to avoid the spread of the bear market.
The analyst Ali Martinez, observing the price dynamics of TON, noted the presence of large transfers on CEX during the past week.
According to the expert, about 240,000 TON have been transferred to exchanges with the purpose of being sold for BTC or for stablecoin.
This event would have further complicated the complex outlook of the currency, creating new selling pressure.
The price forecasts for Telegram’s crypto in 2025
Despite the current weakness of TON, there are those who predict a strong imminent rebound and a bullish continuation throughout 2025.
According to the forecasts of CoinCodex, the price of Telegram’s cryptocurrency is expected to record a three-digit increase in the coming months.
In particular, it is expected that it could reach the peak of 22.9 dollars this year, for an appreciation of approximately 375% compared to today’s quotations.
From the analyses, it also emerges that the average price of TON throughout 2025 should be equal to 12.9 dollars, also a result of a bull growth in three-digit percentages.
For the moment these figures remain, however, only mirages, since the situation is still clearly in the hands of the bear.
To succeed in the endeavor, TON will first of all need to vigorously reclaim the psychological threshold of 5 dollars, hopefully drawing liquidity from the bottom at 4.5 dollars. From here, it would then need to recover the key level of 6 dollars, which would indisputably mark the short-term trend reversal.
It is crucial that this price target is reached by Q1 2025, allowing TON to grow for the remaining phase of the year, subject to a possible retracement in the spring period (“sell in may and go away”).
If the forecasts were accurate, at this point TON would have a clear path towards breaking the ATH until reaching the “price discovery” phase.
This bull scenario would project the crypto to a 56 billion dollars market capitalization, even above the current valuation of Dogecoin.
Analysis of TON on-chain data
The TON ecosystem maintains its solid appearance despite the depreciation of its native token, with on-chain data encouraging a speculative recovery.
According to the data from IntoTheBlock, at the current price level, about 86% of the holders are “out of the money”, meaning they show a negative PNL compared to the purchase price.
This indicator alone makes us understand how an additional bearish capitulation is still unlikely. On the other hand, the “diamond hands” of the TON community give hope that there will not be significant selling pressure even after a potential recovery in quotations.
It is also noteworthy how among the holders of TON, there are users who purchased between 1 and 12 months ago, while there are very few who have positioned themselves in the last few weeks.
This means that the majority of participants purchased during 2024 at the height of the Telegram boom, when prices were in an ascending phase, so it is unlikely that they will switch sides right now.
Very curious to also report how the metrics of the Open Network chain are still particularly high, despite the price depression.
In detail, users and daily transactions on the blockchains are still 10 times greater compared to the data from a year ago.
Although some positive traction has been lost, it is evident how TON still maintains a very rich infrastructure of interactions.
Since its inception, the network has attracted as many as 40 million users, recording over 2.2 billion transactions.
