- Summary:
- What is the outlook of the Nio stock price in the near term? We explain what to expect in 2024, 2025, and 2030 and risks ahead.
NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) stock has been on a turbulent ride, struggling to regain momentum after a prolonged downturn. Despite some short-term recoveries, NIO has remained trapped in a bearish cycle, weighed down by intense EV competition, declining profit margins, and concerns about the broader Chinese economy. As of February 6, 2025, NIO stock is trading at $4.24, testing key support levels amid increased market volatility.
While the company continues to expand its battery-swapping infrastructure and introduces cost-competitive EV models, investors remain cautious about its long-term profitability. With growing pressure from Tesla, BYD, and other EV manufacturers, NIO must prove that it can sustain growth in an increasingly saturated market.
Tesla vs NIO
Nio and other EV companies have struggled in the past few months for several reasons. First, there are concerns that the EV industry is getting crowded. There are hundreds of companies in the industry, like Li Auto, BYD, and Xpeng, that are building electric vehicles. As such, investors are worrying about demand in the industry since Nio manufactures premium cars.
To take on the tightening competition, Nio launched its lower-priced model, the Onvo L60 on May 15. The model is meant to rival Tesla’s Model Y and has a price tag of about 250,000 yuan, or about $34,500. Most Nio Models typically cost around 300,000 yuan. In addition, Nio says that the Onvo L60 is about 10 percent cheaper than the Model Y. Furthermore, it is energy-efficient, resulting in a longer range.
These are key factors in a market riddled with cutthroat competition as EVs become more mainstream. Nio has manufactured about 500,000 units since its founding about 10 years ago, and the launch of a cheaper model points to its focus on expanding its portfolio to increase its sales figures.
Earlier, NIO had already started to offer incentives to its customers. The incentives have more to do with phasing out the first-generation stock than competing with its rivals in price cuts. The company intends to make the complete transition to its second-generation platform NT 2.0, by accelerating the sales of its old stock.
NIO Inc. Reports Delivery Numbers
Nio beat industry analysts’ forecasts in June, delivering 21,209 vehicles, up from May’s record of 20,554 units. That was an increase of 98.09 percent over the figures delivered during the same period in 2023. Furthermore, its second quarter deliveries stood at 57,373 units, representing an increase of 143.9 percent compared to the corresponding quarter last year. Notably, the monthly SUV deliveries declined by 4.79 percent in June to 11,581, but up by 81.44 percent year-over-year.
The company followed the June delivery figures with 20,498 units delivered in July. The units consisted of 11,964 premium smart SUVs and 8,534 premium smart sedans. Overall, the delivery numbers stood at 557,518 as of the end of July.
Nio delivered 160,037 units in 2023 and expects to increase that figure to 200,000 in 2024. The company started 2024 on the right footing, seeing its January deliveries grow by 18.2% year-over-year to stand at 10,055 vehicles. However, that figure declined to 8,132 units in February. Overall, the company aimed to deliver between 31,000-33,000 units in the first quarter of 2024.
China annonces EV incentives
In June, the Chinese government announced that it will offer incentives worth an equivalent of roughly $1,400 to those who trade their fossil fuel vehicles for EVs, fuel-cell vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles. The move is likely to boost EV sales in the world’s second-largest economy, and NIO stands to benefit. However, BYD is likely to benefit more from the incentives, as it produces lower-priced EVs, meaning that the incentive will account for a larger percentage of its product prices.
As per the latest NIO stock news, the company is accelerating the development of its network of battery swap stations. This is expected to increase the revenue of the Chinese EV maker significantly. The company has rolled out around 10 of its next-generation battery swap stations in China. These charging stations could be ideal for long-distance travelers while also boosting the company’s revenue.
NIO Keeps Expanding In The West
Nio (NYSE: NIO) is also expanding its business in Europe. It has already opened a battery swap station in Germany, where it expects to gain market share. The company has also launched two swap stations in Norway, one of the biggest EV countries in the industry. The company has established more than 10 NIO battery swap stations in the EU.
Also, the company plans to launch its cheaper brands known as Firfly and Alps in Europe sooner than previously expected. As per the company president, Firefly will be launched in Europe by 2025.
The EV company currently has 39 power swap stations in Europe, 11 of which are in Germany. By 2025, Nio hopes to have over 4,000 battery swap stations globally, with over 1,000 overseas.The vast majority of the stations (2, 375) are currently in China, and that figure is expected to hit 3,310 by the end of 2024.
NIO vs Tesla Price War
The EV price war which was initiated by Tesla due to falling sales, are now weighing on the profits of the whole industry. As a result, the recent NIO earnings report reveals that the Chinese EV company’s losses are expanding. In fact, the company recently had to layoff 10% of its workforce.
The company could, however, get some upthrust from its much-touted 4th-generation supercharger, launched in April 2024. The battery’s power can go as high as 640 kW, and its maximum output is 765 Amps and 1,000 Volts. The fourth-generation power stations will increase the capacity of services per station from 408 to 480 per day.
It is worth mentioning here that NIO is only one of the few electric vehicle manufacturers betting big on battery-swapping technology. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has already discarded the idea after some consideration. Nevertheless, NIO still remains optimistic about the future of the technology and intends to expand its battery-swap network globally.
Will Nio stock go up?
There are several factors that could drag the Nio stock price lower in the coming months. While 2023 was a relatively good year for EV companies, 2024 is proving to be a mixed bag. Demand has generally not grown as much as expected, amidst high inflation and high interest rates that have discouraged borrowing.
Also, competition in the EV industry is growing rapidly recently. Nio is now competing with more than 400 EV companies in China alone. Some of the top competitors are BYD, Li Auto, and XPeng. This means that, ultimately, the company’s growth will slip in the coming months.
With these factors simultaneously at play, profit margins will almost certainly reduce, while losses could pile up. With increased supplies, the EV market has also diversified the models coming out of production lines. This has also increased the demand for raw materials, which could lead to a spike in the cost of production.
For a company that has been struggling to reduce its costs to align with the slow growth in revenue, an increase in material costs is bad news. While this is not exclusive to Nio in the EV market, it places it at a disadvantage against competitors with stronger balance sheet like BYD, XPeng and Li Auto.
Further, from a technical perspective, the stock has been in a strong sell-off in the past few months. It has also crashed below the 200-SMA, and this signifies trouble. Therefore, the bearish momentum will make it difficult for the stock to bounce back any time soon.
NIO Stock Performance: Long-Term Bearish Trend with Short-Term Support
NIO (NYSE: NIO) stock price declined sharply between mid-July and late August 2024, hitting year-to-date lows. However, it has since recovered some of the losses, rising from $3.63 recorded on August 8 to $4.24 as of February 6, 2025—a gain of 16.8% over several months.
That said, the stock remains in a broader downtrend, with a year-to-date (YTD) decline of -55%. This underscores a strong bearish undercurrent, making a full recovery challenging. At the current price, NIO is testing the 20-SMA ($4.20), but remains below the 50-SMA ($4.30), 100-SMA ($4.56), and 200-SMA ($5.62), signaling continued weakness.
The upcoming Q4 2024 earnings report in March 2025 could bring further volatility, especially if NIO’s delivery numbers fail to meet expectations. Its delivery figures remained above 20,000 units per month in late 2024, but demand remains uncertain in an increasingly competitive EV market.
NIO Stock Analysis & Key Developments – February 20, 2025
NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) is trading at $4.39, posting a modest gain as the stock continues to consolidate within a tight range. Investors remain cautious as the company faces industry headwinds, but recent developments suggest that NIO is pushing forward with strategic advancements.
Nio Technical Analysis
NIO’s stock has been oscillating between key support at $4.04 and resistance near $4.71. A breakout above resistance could trigger a move toward $5.03, while a decline below support might see the stock retesting $3.69.
Momentum indicators show a neutral bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 52.49, reflecting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the MACD is slightly negative, suggesting mild bearish sentiment. The stock is still trading below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, signaling potential resistance ahead.
NIO’s Key Developments This Week
- Company Dismisses Layoff Rumors: NIO has firmly denied widespread rumors of mass layoffs, calling them “ridiculously untrue.” The company has reported the matter to authorities, reinforcing its commitment to business stability.
- Strengthening Global Partnerships: A senior NIO Europe executive has been appointed as the inaugural chair of a new working group within the China Chamber of Commerce to the EU (CCCEU). This initiative aims to strengthen China-EU cooperation in the automotive sector, which could provide strategic advantages in European markets.
- Product Updates & Market Strategy: NIO has unveiled the 2025 ET5 Champion Edition in China, featuring design enhancements and improved technology. Meanwhile, industry sources suggest that the ES7 model may soon be discontinued, possibly making way for newer innovations within the lineup.
- Technological Advancements: In a major leap forward, NIO has introduced steer-by-wire technology in its flagship ET9 model. Developed in collaboration with a leading global supplier, this system eliminates the traditional mechanical link between the steering wheel and front wheels, paving the way for advanced autonomous driving features.
Outlook Nio
NIO remains at a critical juncture as it navigates an evolving EV market landscape. With strategic leadership moves, product upgrades, and cutting-edge technology integrations, the company is reinforcing its long-term vision. However, investors will closely watch upcoming earnings reports and delivery figures to gauge the company’s financial health and growth trajectory.
Updated 13/3/2025
NIO Stock Surges Over 17% – What’s Behind the Rally?
NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) has staged a major comeback this week, jumping over 17% to trade at $5.10. This marks a strong reversal after weeks of sideways movement, fueled by growing optimism ahead of the company’s upcoming earnings report and broader sector-wide strength in Chinese EV stocks.
The rally comes at a crucial time as global EV demand stabilizes, and investors reassess the company’s financial outlook and competitive position. With NIO’s Q4 earnings expected soon, will this momentum continue, or is this just a temporary bounce?
Why Did NIO Stock Rise This Week?
NIO stock surged this week as investors anticipate a strong Q4 2024 earnings report, with 72,689 vehicle deliveries aligning with expectations. The Chinese EV market rebounded, fueled by government incentives and a 94% surge in February battery electric vehicle sales, boosting optimism.
Institutional buying and short covering added to the rally as big investors reassessed NIO’s long-term growth potential. Meanwhile, U.S.-China trade tariff fears have eased, with no new tariffs on EV exports, calming market sentiment, though AI chip restrictions remain a concern.
Tesla’s Global Boycotts and Stock Collapse Boost NIO’s Momentum
NIO’s rally also comes amid Tesla’s global turmoil. The EV giant faces a widening consumer boycott in China and Europe, fueled by customer dissatisfaction, price cuts, and labor disputes. Tesla’s stock has dropped significantly in recent weeks, with investors growing concerned about shrinking margins and slowing global EV demand.
As Tesla struggles, Chinese EV makers like NIO are gaining traction, benefiting from rising domestic sales and increasing government support. This shift has boosted confidence in NIO’s ability to capture more market share, adding momentum to its recent breakout.
NIO Stock Technical Analysis – Key Levels to Watch
NIO Price Today: $5.10
1-Week Change: +17%
Support and Resistance Levels
- Immediate Resistance: $5.59 – A break above this level could push NIO toward $6.06.
- Major Resistance: $6.93 – $7.69 – A move beyond these levels would confirm a full trend reversal.
- Immediate Support: $4.27 – Holding above this zone is critical for sustaining momentum.
- Major Support: $3.69 – If lost, NIO could retest recent lows.
Final Thoughts: Can NIO Maintain Its Uptrend?
NIO’s stock has finally broken out of its consolidation range, driven by earnings optimism, sector-wide strength, and easing trade concerns. However, the real test will come post-earnings, where investors will focus on profitability, margins, and future guidance.
Holding above $5.00 is key for sustaining bullish momentum.
Upcoming earnings will set the tone for the next move.
China’s EV sector remains strong, providing a tailwind for growth.
For now, NIO bulls have the upper hand, but can they push the stock past $6.00?
Nio stock price forecast for 2024
NIO reported revenues of $1.372 billion in the first quarter of 2024, representing a decline of 7.2 percent compared to the corresponding quarter in 2023. Furthermore, it was a decrease of 42.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2023. The Q1 2024 Gross profit was at $67.6 million, representing a decline of 61.2 percent from Q4 2024, but a jump of 200.5 percent from Q1 2023 profit.
Analysts have mixed feelings about the Nio stock price. Data compiled by Marketbeat shows that the average target for the stock is $6.19, which is substantially higher than the current $4.49. In the near term, NIO is likely to struggle to return profits. However, Tesla has proven that EV manufacturers can return good profit once they establish a stable enough and wide enough market base. Equally important is the ability to meet customer orders.
Some of the analysts bullish on the Nio stock price are from China Renaissance, Mizuho, Jeffries, Deutsche Bank, and UBS. Most of these analysts have a buy or hold rating on the stock.
Another broader look by most analysts shows that most of them are bullish on the stock. In addition, data compiled by Tipranks shows that the target for the stock is $16, which is also higher than the current level.
Meanwhile, according to Long Forecast, the Nio stock price will remain in a tight range in the next few months. They expect the shares to be below $5 at the end of 2024.
NIO Stock Forecast 2025: More Uncertainty Ahead?
By 2025, NIO will face continued competition from Tesla, Li Auto, and BYD, alongside increasing regulatory challenges in China. While the company’s expansion into Europe and battery-swapping technology is promising, profitability remains a major concern.
Most analysts have a 2025 price target range of $6.50-$9.50, but this assumes significant revenue growth and cost-cutting efforts. If NIO fails to control expenses, the stock may remain below $5.00. If you want to test, you can check the ATFX trading demo account.
Nio analysts forecasts
According to analysts at Tipranks.com, NIO stock currently has a rating of a “moderate buy” based on the analysis of 10 analysts, with an average price target of $6.52. The high price target is $10.00 while the low target is at $4.00. The average price target is 62% above the current price as of this writing, signaling it as a potential good buy with room for growth.
NIO Stock Forecast 2030: Will It Survive the EV Shakeout?
By 2030, the global EV industry is expected to be dominated by fewer, more profitable players. NIO must establish itself as a leader in battery-swapping infrastructure while competing with legacy automakers entering the EV space.
- Bullish Scenario: If NIO successfully scales its battery-swapping technology, expands in Europe, and achieves profitability, the stock could reach $30-$50 by 2030.
- Bearish Scenario: If NIO struggles with cash flow and competition, it may trade closer to $10-$15.
NIO Stock Forecast 2040: A Speculative Long-Term Bet
Predicting NIO’s price in 2040 is difficult, but if the company remains a leading EV player, its valuation could exceed current expectations.
- If NIO achieves mass adoption of battery-swapping and dominates key EV markets, the stock could reach $80-$120.
- If competition or financial struggles force consolidation, NIO may not survive as an independent company by 2040.
Nio stock price history
As shown below, the Nio share price has had a roller-coaster as a public company. The company went public in 2018, and its stock price collapsed to an all-time low of $1.20. At the time, there were concerns about the company’s existence as a going concern.
It then started a spectacular rally in November 2019 as the firm geared towards the launch of its products. Since then, it jumped by more than 5,400% and reached an all-time high of $66.99. Today, the stock is about 1,570% below its all-time high price.
Nio share price history
Is Nio a good buy and hold stock?
While Nio is a good company, it is also highly risky. Being a Chinese company, there are concerns about the accuracy of its financial results. In the past, we have seen Chinese companies publish inaccurate numbers.
Another concern is that the company could be delisted in the US. If this happens, many American investors will be left carrying the bag. Also, there are concerns about rising competition in the EV industry as companies like BYD, Xpeng, Geely, and Zeekr take market share. However, the Chinese government has proven its support for its burgeoning EV industry, with Nio being one of the major beneficiaries of government financing. This could help steady the company amidst rising competition.
Nio stock short interest
Short interest refers to the number of shares held by short-sellers. These are people who bet that a stock will go down. The current Nio short interest stands at just $191 million million, which is substantially lower than its level of $878 million a year ago. At its peak, the value of shares held by short-sellers was worth over $4 billion.
Nio short-interest
Source: Marketbeat.com
How many cars has Nio sold?
Nio has continued to scale its production, and as of January 31, 2025, the company has delivered a total of 685,427 vehicles. In January 2025 alone, Nio reported 13,863 deliveries, marking a 37.9% year-over-year increase. This steady growth highlights the company’s efforts to expand its footprint despite ongoing competition in the EV sector. Analysts still expect Nio to cross 500,000 annual deliveries in the coming years, assuming demand remains strong and the company successfully executes its expansion plans.
Is the Nio stock overvalued?
Like most EV stocks, Nio is currently overvalued. Besides, this is a loss-making company that makes less than $4 billion in annual revenue that is being valued at almost $35 billion. The company has a price-to-sales ratio of 5.89, making it overvalued. However, this overvaluation can be justified if the company maintains its growth.
Final Thoughts: Is NIO a Buy or a Risky Bet?
NIO remains a high-risk, high-reward stock. The company has a strong vision, but its execution has been inconsistent. The EV industry is growing, but it’s also becoming highly competitive, with Tesla, BYD, and new entrants constantly pressuring margins.
While NIO’s stock price could see short-term gains if earnings impress in March 2025, the long-term picture depends on profitability, battery-swapping adoption, and global expansion. For now, NIO remains a speculative investment rather than a safe long-term bet.
