In the last four days, there have consistently been net inflows on Bitcoin ETFs.
Instead, between July 21 and 23, there were three consecutive days of outflows, therefore a brief phase of decline ended, and another phase of growth began.
The new growth phase of Bitcoin ETFs
Between July 21 and 23, in a total of three days, more than 285 million dollars of outflows from Bitcoin ETFs were recorded.
On July 24, however, in just one day, inflows of 226 million dollars were recorded, almost completely canceling out in a single day the outflows of the previous three days.
It should be noted, however, that in the following days the inflows actually decreased, first moving to 130 and 157 million, and then yesterday dropping to 80 million.
Therefore, the current growth phase does not yet seem solid enough to be able to surely last for a long time. It is not certain, for example, that it could already stop today.
The fact is that the previous growth phase lasted weeks, with peaks of daily inflows even exceeding a billion dollars (1,000 million), and with a last day of inflows exceeding 360 million. In other words, these growth phases can also abruptly stop without any warning.
The Ethereum ETFs
The discussion is slightly different regarding Ethereum ETFs, if only for the different level of trading volumes and average daily inflows/outflows.
In this case, the fact is that there was no slowdown last week.
While over three consecutive days on Bitcoin there were a total of 285 million dollars in outflows, during the same days on Ethereum there were a total of more than 1.1 billion dollars in inflows.
Instead, in the last four days, against 593 million dollars of total inflows on Bitcoin, there have even been 966 on Ethereum.
Therefore, for more than a week now, the ETFs on Ethereum from this point of view have been performing better than those on Bitcoin, even though in the previous weeks those on BTC did much better. It is enough to say that the single largest daily inflow ever on ETH was less than 800 million dollars, a figure surpassed by Bitcoin at the beginning of the month.
The impact on the price of BTC
In reality, these numbers have only a limited impact on the price of Bitcoin.
In fact, often it is the same trend of the Bitcoin price that impacts inflows and outflows on ETFs.
However, a first useful piece of information can be obtained from the comparison of ETH with BTC, given that starting from July 15, and not by chance, the price of Ethereum in Bitcoin rose from 0.025 BTC to 0.032 BTC in a few days.
It should be noted, however, that at the beginning of the year an ETH was worth 0.035 BTC, and a year ago 0.049.
A second piece of information can be derived from the alternation of sequences of positive days and sequences of negative days, albeit brief, because it helps to understand how the Bitcoin market is actually experiencing a moment of uncertainty. Such uncertainty, for example, seems to be less on Ethereum.
The selling pressure
However, there is a clear indirect impact.
In fact, if overall, in the medium term, there are many more inflows than outflows, managers must somehow go to the market to purchase the underlying.
Although these purchases occur OTC, meaning not on the exchanges, in the long run, they end up draining funds from the crypto exchanges themselves.
It is therefore not a coincidence that, according to the data from CryptoQuant, the number of BTC present overall on crypto exchanges has decreased from 3.175 million in February 2024 to the current 2.365 million. And it is also not a coincidence that this decline began precisely when ETFs started to string together long daily series of positive inflows.
This outflow from crypto exchanges has effectively reduced the selling pressure, causing the price to rise in the face of stable or even increasing buying pressure.
In other terms, if the spot crypto ETFs string together long daily series of inflows, or outflows, consecutively, they eventually have an indirect impact also on the selling pressure, and therefore possibly also on the price, should the buying pressure not change, or even change in the opposite direction.
