Rate Cuts Incoming and US Dollar Decline Not Over Yet, According to Wells Fargo Analysts – Here’s Their Outlook
Economists at the banking giant Wells Fargo think the US dollar is primed to trend weaker for the rest of the year, but they don’t have the same outlook for 2026.
In a new analysis, they predict that the greenback will weaken against most G10 and emerging market currencies until the end of 2025.
This is primarily due to their expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate by 75 basis points throughout the remainder of the year, with predicted 25-point cuts at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in September, October and December.
The Wells Fargo economists predict US GDP (gross domestic product) growth in the second half of the year, but they also believe the US economy will “lose its outperformance pillar of support.”
“As economic growth trends favor international economies, we believe a foundation for foreign currency support will form and foreign currencies can strengthen over the next few months.”
However, they predict those trends will reverse next year, giving the dollar strength throughout 2026.
“By next year, the Fed should have ended its easing cycle and is likely to keep rates on hold. The carry appeal of the dollar should be attractive next year, and bring capital flows back to the United States. In addition, fiscal stimulus from the “Big Beautiful Bill” should support US growth trends, while upcoming Fed easing should also support activity in the United States.
And while tariffs are likely to remain implemented next year, corporations and financial markets may feel more comfortable operating in a tariff environment by next year. In that sense, US corporates may move ahead with investment decisions, while market participants may also feel comfortable investing as US policy uncertainty recedes.”
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