Starlink Surges to Nigeria’s Second-Largest ISP, Poised to Become Market Leader

Elon Musk’s satellite internet company, Starlink, has firmly established itself as Nigeria’s second-largest Internet Service Provider (ISP) by subscriber base, with strong indications that it could soon become the country’s number one ISP.

The latest industry data released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) reveals that as of Q3 2024, Starlink’s active customer base had surged to 65,564, surpassing FiberOne and leaving other local ISPs trailing far behind.

The growth trajectory of Starlink in Nigeria is remarkable. At the end of 2023, the company had 23,897 subscribers, making it the third-largest ISP at the time. In just nine months of 2024, it added an astonishing 41,667 new customers, solidifying its hold as one of the most sought-after internet providers in the country.

This rapid expansion suggests that Starlink could soon overtake Spectranet, the current market leader, which has been experiencing a decline in its customer base.

While Spectranet remains Nigeria’s largest ISP, its dominance is slipping. At the end of Q3 2024, the company had 105,441 active customers, reflecting a loss of over 8,000 subscribers since the beginning of the year. In contrast, Starlink has been adding thousands of new subscribers each month, closing the gap at a rapid pace.

If this trend continues, Starlink could surpass Spectranet within the next year, if not sooner, to become Nigeria’s number-one ISP.

Meanwhile, FiberOne, once the second-largest ISP, now lags far behind with only 33,010 active subscribers, less than half of Starlink’s current customer base.

Starlink’s Disruption of Nigeria’s ISP Market

The rise of Starlink marks a major disruption in Nigeria’s internet market, particularly for local ISPs, which have long been criticized for poor service quality, limited coverage, and high levels of customer dissatisfaction.

Unlike traditional ISPs that rely on fiber-optic or wireless infrastructure, Starlink’s satellite-based model allows it to deliver high-speed internet with lower latency to virtually any location, making it an attractive alternative, particularly in areas where local ISPs and mobile operators fail to provide reliable connectivity.

For years, Nigerians have struggled with unreliable broadband services, particularly in areas outside of major cities like Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt. Many consumers have abandoned their local ISPs in favor of Starlink’s more stable and efficient service, even though it comes at a significantly higher cost.

Local ISPs Struggling Against Mobile Operators and Starlink

Despite the competition among ISPs, the mobile network operators (MNOs)—MTN, Airtel, Globacom, and 9mobile—continue to dominate Nigeria’s internet space. NCC data shows that as of September 2024, these four operators had a combined 132.4 million active internet subscriptions, dwarfing the total 307,946 active customers of all ISPs combined.

While local ISPs have struggled to scale their businesses, Starlink is proving to be a game-changer, not only competing with ISPs but also attracting customers who previously relied on mobile network data services for their broadband needs.

Starlink’s Rapid Growth Across Africa

The impact of Starlink is not just being felt in Nigeria—it is disrupting the entire ISP industry across Africa. Since launching its services on the continent, Starlink has rapidly expanded across multiple African countries, with increasing adoption in nations like Kenya, Zambia, Mozambique, and Rwanda.

The primary reason for this rapid expansion is the failure of local ISPs and traditional telecom operators to provide stable, high-speed internet, especially in rural and underserved areas.

Many African countries suffer from inadequate fiber-optic infrastructure and poor last-mile connectivity, making it difficult for traditional ISPs to expand their coverage. In contrast, Starlink’s satellite-based approach eliminates the need for physical infrastructure, allowing users to access high-speed internet anywhere, as long as they have a Starlink terminal.

This has placed Starlink in a dominant position, particularly in regions where governments and businesses rely on satellite broadband for connectivity. In countries with high rural populations and weak broadband infrastructure, Starlink is becoming the go-to internet provider.

Starlink’s High Costs vs. Unmatched Service

However, Starlink remains significantly more expensive than local ISPs. In December 2023, the company raised its monthly subscription fee in Nigeria from N38,000 to N75,000, a decision that sparked widespread debate.

The price hike was met with resistance, particularly from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), which initially accused Starlink of failing to obtain regulatory approval for the increase. However, the demand for Starlink’s services remained high, as many consumers were willing to pay a premium for uninterrupted internet access.

This willingness to pay more for better service underscores a larger problem—Nigeria’s local ISPs and mobile operators have failed to deliver reliable internet, forcing consumers to look for alternatives despite higher costs.

While Starlink continues to expand its reach in Nigeria, it is not without challenges.

In 2023, the company temporarily halted new orders in Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt due to overwhelming demand, as it had reached full capacity in these cities. Similar issues occurred in Benin City and Warri, where Starlink service was temporarily listed as “sold out.”

Additionally, Starlink faces regulatory scrutiny from Nigerian authorities. The NCC has repeatedly warned against foreign companies operating without strict adherence to local regulations. While Starlink is officially licensed, its pricing decisions and market dominance could attract closer regulatory oversight in the future.

Will Starlink Become Nigeria’s No. 1 ISP?

With its unmatched speed, nationwide availability, and growing customer base, Starlink is well on its way to becoming Nigeria’s top ISP. If its current growth rate continues, it is expected to overtake Spectranet before the first half of 2025.

However, its dominance could depend on how well local ISPs and mobile operators respond to the competition. Unless traditional ISPs improve service quality, expand coverage, and lower costs, they risk losing even more customers to Starlink.