Shipments of Chinese goods to the U.S. are plunging, auguring potential supply-chain disruptions that could empty store shelves as early as this summer, some experts have warned.
As U.S. tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports take hold, supplies of a broad range of products could start to dwindle later this summer as back-to-school and holiday spending heat up. Experts warn that the sharp decline in trade activity could lead to COVID-19 pandemic-like shortages of products, including goods assembled in the U.S. or elsewhere that use materials or inputs from China.
Many American retailers rushed to build up their inventories ahead of President Trump’s sweeping levies, leading to a recent spike in imports. Imports have since slowed, with a number of retailers foregoing orders on apparel, baby goods and other items that would typically be headed toward U.S. ports.
“Once this pull-forward effect fades, U.S. companies could face inventory shortfalls and restocking challenges, especially for back-to-school and holiday goods,” analysts with investment bank TD Cowen wrote in a research note that assessed the impact of tariffs on supply chains.
“Companies and products with high exposure to China and its manufacturing are most at risk of shortages,” they added.
The types of goods whose supplies were pulled forward as companies stocked up include computers, cars, cell phones and electric storage batteries, according to the financial firm. The financial firm cited data from the Port of Los Angeles, which along with the Port of Long Beach receives roughly 40% of all imports from Asia.
Following the pre-tariff spike in imports, container bookings from China to the U.S. have gone down by as much as 60%, according to Flexport, a supply chain management company. So-called “blank sailings,” or canceled voyages to the Port of Los Angeles rose to 17 in May, from just six in the month of April, TD Cowen found.
What does the U.S. import from China?
There is a wide range of goods that U.S.-based sellers import from China and that are most at risk of becoming scarce because of the trade war.
“Among them, toys stand out as particularly vulnerable, raising concerns about potential shortages during the critical holiday season,” TD Cowen analysts noted.
Here are some products from China that could soon be hard to come by in the U.S. as a result of tariffs, according to TD Cowen’s analysis.
Down feathers: The U.S. imports $1.9 billion in down feathers from China. That amounts to 77% of the country’s total imported supply of down. Down is commonly used for insulation in comforters and outerwear.
Toys, games and sports equipment: More than $30 billion in toys, games and sports equipment sold in the U.S. is imported from China. That accounts for just over 73% of the country’s total imports in the category. The trade war could spell shortages in children’s toys come Christmastime, experts, as well as President Trump, have warned.
Textile art: The U.S. imports $8.6 billion in textile art from China. That accounts for over half of all the textile art the country imports from abroad.
Footwear: The U.S. is highly reliant on China for shoes. It imports $9.8 billion’s worth, or 36% of footwear sold stateside. Sportswear giant Adidas for one, has warned that it expects to raise prices for U.S. customers because of tariffs.
Cutlery: Dinner utensils manufactured in China could also start becoming scarce. The U.S. imports $3.1 billion in cutlery and metal tools from the country.
Glassware: Almost 30% of U.S. imports of glassware and other products made of glass comes from China.
Furniture and bedding: $18.5 billion’s worth of furniture and bedding comes from China. That’s 28% of all U.S. imports in the category.
Apparel: $17.3 billion’s worth of apparel is imported from China. That includes knit or crocheted clothing (almost $10 billion) and not-knit apparel ($7.3 billion).
Beyond higher costs for consumer goods, businesses in a range of industries could face other tariff-related challenges, TD Cowen found.
For example, the U.S. imports $124 billion in electric machinery; $82 billion in nuclear reactors, boilers and other machinery; $12 billion in goods made of iron or steel; and $19.3 billion in plastics from China each year, according to data from the International Trade Administration.
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