Tron (TRX) is emerging as an unexpected frontrunner in the crypto market’s latest rotation, outperforming Bitcoin (BTC) since March, prompting analysts to consider whether a more selective form of altseason is already underway.
New data from blockchain analytics firms CryptoQuant and Nansen shows TRX is gaining momentum amid a broader consolidation of Bitcoin’s market dominance. While BTC continues to lead institutional flows, the recent decoupling of TRX from Bitcoin’s price action has triggered renewed discussion about altcoin market cycles, though with a more tempered outlook than in past bull runs.
“We might not see a broad altseason in 2025,” a CryptoQuant analyst wrote in a recent post. “Instead, a selected group of ‘premium’ altcoins will likely outperform Bitcoin.”
TRX decouples from BTC amid strong network activity
Tron’s recent outperformance is not just speculative; it’s backed by on-chain data. In the past 24 hours alone, the network registered over 2.55 million active addresses (up 12.6%) and more than 9 million daily transactions (up 15.6%) in the early hours of Tuesday, July 22, according to analytics platform Nansen.
That level of throughput places Tron ahead of many layer 1 competitors in terms of usage and consistency.
“Stable, consistent, and busy,” Nansen wrote in a post summarizing Tron’s real-time activity metrics.
At the time of concluding this story, there have been some significant movements on Tron’s chain growth data as captured by Nansen, with the transaction volume being roughly 3% down. It now has 2.54 million active addresses (up 11.07%) and 8.99 million daily transactions (up 12.07%) over the past 24 hours.
CryptoQuant notes that the price correlation between TRX and BTC, which had remained relatively tight earlier this year, has now “decoupled,” a technical shift that often precedes a redistribution of capital into higher-beta altcoins. This divergence is comparable to similar setups observed in previous altcoin rallies, such as those in 2017 and 2021.
However, unlike in past cycles where capital indiscriminately rotated across dozens of tokens, this time, the capital appears more focused.
A narrower, more selective altseason
One key difference in this cycle, according to analysts, is the muted retail participation and the absence of a traditional “altseason” where nearly all non-BTC tokens rally simultaneously. Instead, market observers expect a handful of altcoins, like TRX, to lead based on utility, network usage, and stablecoin integrations.
Indeed, TRX’s daily transaction count now rivals that of Ethereum and Solana. Much of this activity is powered by USDT (Tether) stablecoin transfers, with Tron accounting for over 50% of all Tether volume.
That utility has underpinned TRX’s latest breakout above key resistance levels.
Despite TRX’s bullish momentum, analysts caution that Bitcoin’s dominance remains above 50%, which may delay or disrupt full-scale altcoin rallies, according to analysts.
Ethereum and Solana continue to attract institutional narratives around real-world assets (RWAs) and tokenized securities, but TRX is carving out its niche by delivering sustained activity without the congestion or high fees plaguing its rivals.
Still, skeptics remain. Tron’s reputation has been marred in past years by regulatory scrutiny surrounding founder Justin Sun, and its DeFi ecosystem lacks the composability and capital depth of Ethereum’s.
Yet the raw numbers suggest TRX is one of the few tokens bucking Bitcoin’s gravitational pull, and doing so with considerable consistency.
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