Americans Are Worried About Their Jobs, Layoffs, Rising Unemployment

You know that sensation when something feels off, but you can’t quite put your finger on it? That sensation of “I don’t feel so good about this,” even though the “this” is a little fuzzy. That’s the state of work for many people right now. So if you’re a little uneasy about the job market, you’re not alone.

The economy’s felt like the other shoe is about to drop for quite some time now. There was the euphoria of the Great Resignation, the post-pandemic era where workers had a lot of temporary power and did some job-hopping. That gave way to the confusing negativity of the vibecession, when Americans said the economy was terrible even though, on paper, it was good — and, despite their negativity, consumers kept spending like it was good, too. Then we got to the Big Stay, where workers decided to stick to what they were doing, whether they were happy about it or not. Sentiment picked up a bit after the 2024 election when people thought a Trump 2.0 economy would look as rosy as they remembered Trump 1.0. But now, the bad vibes are back. Workers are not feeling great about the labor market or their own jobs. The Big Stay has transformed into the Big Cling to Your Desk, Suck Up to Your Boss, Be Seen in the Office.

Consumer sentiment has been on the downswing recently, in part because people are feeling queasy about work. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell in March, driven largely by declines in people’s outlooks on income, business, and the labor market. The concerns about the future pushed the Conference Board’s expectations index to its lowest point in 12 years, below the level that tends to signal a recession. While people feel OK about the current labor market, they’re worried about their future employment prospects and their future incomes.

“That’s a sign that people are getting worried about their own situation,” said Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist at The Conference Board, in an interview. She added that people are beginning to say they’re more worried about their family financial situations, too. “We are at the point where they may start changing their behavior.”

Surveys from the University of Michigan reflect a similar doom-and-gloom mood toward the labor market. Consumers’ expectations for unemployment over the next year are at their worst level since the Great Recession — two-thirds of them think unemployment will go up. According to the University of Michigan’s most recent reading, consumer sentiment has declined across the economy, cutting across age, income, and politics, as people are feeling increasingly anxious about a wide variety of measures, including their own personal finances and the labor market. Even high-income consumers are worried about their situations.

As with the Conference Board’s findings, the University of Michigan’s survey shows people aren’t just worried about the broader labor market, they’re worried about themselves.

“If labor markets truly weaken or people believe that labor markets are going to weaken, and now they’re expecting their incomes to be less stable than they were before, they’re not going to be willing to go out on a limb and spend at the same high level, take financial risks, make more investments, start new businesses,” said Joanne Hsu, the director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan. “People are not going to be comfortable doing that if they’re perceiving weaknesses throughout the economy.”

Everybody hates uncertainty, whether you’re talking about executives down to front-line workers.

On paper, the labor market remains quite solid. The unemployment rate is healthy relative to history, though it’s a bit elevated from recent historic lows, and layoffs remain steady. The quit rate is a little below where it was pre-pandemic, which reflects the “stay where you are” attitude, but overall, signs from “hard” data are flashing yellow.

Daniel Zhao, the lead economist at Glassdoor, told me that mentions of layoffs in the platform’s employee reviews are up by 5% compared to last year and are steadily climbing. “Even if workers are still employed, that doesn’t necessarily mean they are happy in their jobs,” he said. Some of the commentary is from people talking about the ongoing effects of previous layoffs, expressing feelings of burnout because their workplaces are understaffed. Or, they’re worried that they’ll get swept up in the next round of cuts. “Employees might not see any reason why there wouldn’t be another round of layoffs if they feel like the business and the economy are in a similar position,” he said.

People see the headlines about a white-collar recession, and they’re unnerved, whether they’re knowledge workers or not. They see the news that businesses may be rethinking hiring plans and wonder if they’d be able to find a new gig if necessary.

The word of the day is “uncertainty” — the US Economic Policy Uncertain Index is higher than it was during the pandemic. There’s a constant sense of whiplash across many parts of the economy and politics. What’s happening with tariffs seems to change daily. Announcements of mass government firings and confusing reinstatements are happening constantly. Many businesses and workers expected Donald Trump’s second term to look like his first one, with tax cuts and relatively unserious tariff threats and a general business-friendly stance. Instead, they’re faced with a new version of Trump whose tariff gyrations are making business planning impossible and who doesn’t seem to care if the stock market falls because of his actions.

“Everybody hates uncertainty, whether you’re talking about executives down to front-line workers,” Zhao said.

“A lot of people only are like, ‘Wow, the mix of policies is worse than I thought, but I’m not exactly sure what policies are being implemented and what I should prepare for,” said Guy Berger, the director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, a labor-analytics firm.

There’s a level of paralysis amid the chaos. With so much instability, many workers and businesses feel like they have no choice but to stay put. That means employees are sticking with their jobs, and businesses are easing off the gas on hiring plans until there’s a better sense of what’s going on.

Everybody’s just kind of frozen, waiting and seeing.

“People are hesitant to really even expand sizably or leave their job and find other ones that are a better fit,” Allison Shrivastava, an economist at Indeed, said. “Everybody’s just kind of frozen, waiting and seeing.”

Some of the worker sentiments and anxieties are not that different from, say, 2023 or 2024. There’s long been a subtle recognition that nothing lasts forever, including an extra-worker-friendly jobs market. The vibes have been off for a few years now. But the economists I spoke with said that something distinct is happening that may make things different. Instead of gesturing broadly at the state of things, workers are specifically negative about their personal outlooks. The level of uncertainty in the economy is palpable. That means they may be likelier to decide to really batten down the hatches, try really hard to hold onto their jobs, and, in turn, start reigning in their spending. (Though that last one is TBD — throughout this inflationary and vibecessionary period, consumer spending has been remarkably resilient.)

“Employees do feel pretty uncertain about the future,” Zhao said.

Berger emphasized that just because workers feel worse doesn’t mean they’re right that things actually are worse. As mentioned, on paper, the labor market and economy look pretty good. Stocks are down, yes, but as the saying goes, the stock market is not the economy.

“So far, everything we’ve seen in terms of data is pretty small scale,” he said. “There’s nothing here that so far suggests that we’ve fallen into this doom loop where we’re going to tip into a downturn where things are going to get worse. If I had to guess, it’s going to be an incremental worsening.”

For workers who are on edge, the idea of incremental worsening isn’t especially heartening. That means many people may be making the calculation that it’s better to stay where they are, avoid asking for too much, and hope to stay in the boss’ good graces. The next time you run into the CEO, tell them you like their shoes or something.

Emily Stewart is a senior correspondent at Business Insider, writing about business and the economy.