- The United States Gross Domestic Product is expected to grow at an annualised rate of 2.6% in Q4 2024.
- The US economy is expected to keep growing at a healthy pace.
- The US Dollar is in recovery mode amid ruling risk aversion.
The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is scheduled to release the preliminary estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the October-December quarter on Thursday. Analysts anticipate that the report will indicate an annualised economic growth rate of 2.6%, slightly below the 3.1% posted in the third quarter of the year.
What to expect from GDP figures this time
The BEA’s preliminary GDP release is the most important for financial markets, as the figure is the ultimate indicator of US economic health. Alongside growth data, the report includes fresh Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – Price Index figures, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favourite inflation gauge.
The current release is a bit tricky, as the Fed announced its monetary policy decision to keep interest rates on hold ahead of GDP and PCE updates, and financial markets are still digesting the latest on that front.
Back in December, the Fed published its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) or dot plot, which showed upward revisions in 2025 year-end growth to 2.1% from 2% and to core inflation to 2.5% from 2.1%. Generally speaking, the latest SEP suggested policymakers expected continued economic expansion and inflation to remain above their 2% goal for some more time.
Beyond the headline GDP reading, market participants anticipate the Q4 core PCE Price Index will print at 2.5%, higher than the 2.2% posted in Q3.
Other than that, the report includes the GDP Price Index, which tracks changes in the prices of goods and services produced domestically, including exports but excluding imports. This index provides a clear view of how inflation is affecting GDP. For the fourth quarter, the GDP Price Index is expected to increase by 2.5%, up from the 1.9% rise seen in the third quarter.
It is worth adding that the GDPNow model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.2% on Tuesday, up from 3.0% on January 17.
When will the GDP print be released and how can it affect the USD?
The US GDP report will be published at 13:30 GMT on Wednesday. In addition to the headline real GDP figure, changes in private domestic purchases, the GDP Price Index and the Q4 PCE Price Index figures could impact the US Dollar’s (USD) valuation.
A better-than-anticipated GDP headline could support the Fed’s dovish case and pressure the USD while discouraging figures could have the opposite effect on the American currency.
Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, says: “The US Dollar Index (DXY) recovered amid a risk-averse environment at the beginning of the week but stands far below the monthly high posted in mid-January at 110.18. At the same time, the ongoing advance lacks momentum, according to technical readings in the daily chart. The January 23 intraday high at 108.50 comes as an immediate barrier ahead of the 109.00 figure. Should the index surpass the latter, market players will be looking at the 109.40-109.50 region as a potential bullish target.”
Bednarik adds: “A decline below 107.75, the January 29 intraday low, exposes the monthly bottom at 106.97. Still, and given the risk-averse environment, US Dollar dips could be seen as buying opportunities, with additional falls unlikely in the near term.”
(An earlier version of this story was corrected on January 30 at 07:34 to say that GDP is expected to grow at an annualised rate of 2.6% in Q4 2024, not 2.8%.)
GDP FAQs
A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.
A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.
When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
