- The Indian Rupee gathers strength in Wednesday’s early European session.
- The softer US Dollar and lower crude oil prices continue to underpin the INR.
- The US March Retail Sales report and speech by Fed Chair Powell will be the highlights later on Wednesday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades in positive territory for the fifth consecutive day on Wednesday. The weakening of the US Dollar (USD) and the extended decline in crude oil prices eased the Indian currency’s losses. It’s worth noting that India is the world’s third-largest oil consumer, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the Indian currency value.
On the other hand, US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he was considering temporary exemptions to tariffs on imported vehicles and parts to allow automakers additional time to establish manufacturing operations in the US. Nonetheless, tensions between the US and China are escalating, which might weigh on the Asian currencies, including the INR.
Looking ahead, investors will keep an eye on the US March Retail Sales later on Wednesday, which is expected to rise 1.3% MoM in March. Also, the speech of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell will be in the spotlight.
Indian Rupee edges higher on a weaker US Dollar
- Indian stocks climbed as trading resumed after an extended weekend, with the benchmark indices recovering all losses sparked by Trump’s reciprocal tariffs earlier this month. The nation’s big domestic economy is seen able to withstand a potential global recession better than many peers, who face higher tariffs.
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will buy bonds worth 400 billion rupees ($4.67 billion) and will also conduct a 43-day repo for 1.50 trillion rupees on Thursday, per Reuters.
- India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.34% YoY in March, compared to 3.61% in February, according to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. This reading came in softer than the 3.60% expected.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that the Trump administration’s tariff policies were a major shock to the US economy that could lead the central bank to cut rates to head off recession even if inflation remained high.
- Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said that the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s tariff and other policies has put the economy into a “big pause,” and he suggested that the Fed bank should stay on hold until there is more clarity.
- The markets are now pricing in nearly 85 basis points (bps) worth of monetary policy easing by the end of the year, with most expecting the Fed to hold rates next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
USD/INR resumes its downside journey below the 100-day EMA
The Indian Rupee trades stronger on the day. The USD/INR pair resumes its downside as the pair crosses below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. The downward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the midline near 42.60, indicating the longer-term bearish bias isn’t completely over yet.
The initial support level for USD/INR is located at 85.48, the low of March 24. Further south, the next contention level to watch is 85.20, the low of April 3, followed by 84.95, the low of April 3.
In the bullish case, the 85.90-86.00 zone acts as an immediate resistance level for the pair, representing the 100-day EMA and the psychological level. Bullish candlesticks and consistent trading above the mentioned level could see a rally to 86.61, the high of April 10.
RBI FAQs
The role of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its own words, is “..to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth.” This involves maintaining the inflation rate at a stable 4% level primarily using the tool of interest rates. The RBI also maintains the exchange rate at a level that will not cause excess volatility and problems for exporters and importers, since India’s economy is heavily reliant on foreign trade, especially Oil.
The RBI formally meets at six bi-monthly meetings a year to discuss its monetary policy and, if necessary, adjust interest rates. When inflation is too high (above its 4% target), the RBI will normally raise interest rates to deter borrowing and spending, which can support the Rupee (INR). If inflation falls too far below target, the RBI might cut rates to encourage more lending, which can be negative for INR.
Due to the importance of trade to the economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in FX markets to maintain the exchange rate within a limited range. It does this to ensure Indian importers and exporters are not exposed to unnecessary currency risk during periods of FX volatility. The RBI buys and sells Rupees in the spot market at key levels, and uses derivatives to hedge its positions.
