High-density week of market movers for the crypto market.
Tuesday 12/8 the USA CPI for July is released and Thursday 14/8 the PPI: data that guide expectations on rates and therefore the risk-on/off profile of investors.
In parallel, the Glacier Drop of Midnight (Cardano ecosystem) continues with a multichain distribution of NIGHT to tens of millions of eligible wallet; on the institutional front, the S-1 filings for a spot ETF on Solana are consolidating, with a likelihood of approval in 2025 according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Completes the picture a series of token unlock (Aptos and Avalanche) and the record date for the next distribution to FTX creditors. These drivers, combined, can increase tactical volatility on BTC, ETH and major altcoin.
Key events and market impact
1) CPI (12/8) and PPI (14/8) USA: the macro barometer of the week
What to expect: the CPI (consumer inflation) and the PPI (producer inflation) drive expectations on Fed rates. Release at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC; 14:30 CEST).
A below expectations figure tends to favor a risk-on mood and a decline in implicit real rates, benefiting BTC/ETH and, with higher beta, the altcoin.
A better than expected figure can trigger profit-taking and an increase in intraday volatility. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Expected impact: High. The most significant movements usually occur within the ±30-minute window from the release; in the case of a consistent disinflationary signal (CPI and PPI aligned), possible volatility compression in the following days.
2) Midnight (Cardano): Glacier Drop live, claim for ~34M addresses on 8 chains
What happens: the claim portal of the Glacier Drop is open (08/05 → 10/04). Almost 34 million addresses are eligible across eight ecosystems (ADA, BTC, ETH, XRPL, SOL, BNB Chain, AVAX, BAT).
The official guide specifies allocations for the ecosystem and cryptographic signature steps + “clean” Cardano address for receiving. Midnight Network
Tokenomics & unlock: the 24 billion NIGHT are distributed in three phases (Glacier Drop → Scavenger Mine → Lost-and-Found). After the mainnet genesis, the tokens “thaw” gradually (4 tranches over 360 days), with redemption via smart contract on Cardano: design intended to mitigate post-airdrop dump. 45047878.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net
Expected impact: Medium/High. Direct effect on ADA prices and the involved chains via attention/volumes; the vesting structure reduces immediate selling pressure, but the cross-chain sentiment on privacy/ZK narrative can favor tactical rotations towards connected assets.
3) ETF on Solana: S-1 process ongoing, odds of approval in 2025
The regulatory point: more issuers (including VanEck, Franklin, Bitwise, Grayscale, Fidelity, CoinShares) have filed/expanded the S-1 prospectuses for spot ETFs on Solana; the most recent S-1/A confirm active dialogue with the SEC. SEC
Probability and sentiment: the analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence have raised the probability of approval to ~90% by 2025 (estimate, not a regulatory commitment). The expectation acts as a catalyst for SOL and, by extension, for the L1 high-throughput sector. Cointelegraphsherwood.news
Expected impact: High (scenario-based). In the current week, the driver is mainly expectations/headline-risk: rumors or further additions to the prospectuses can fuel momentum; delays or stringent requests from the SEC trigger pullback.
4) Token unlock – Aptos (8/12) and Avalanche (8/15)
Aptos (APT): unlocking of ~11.3M APT (indicative value ~50–55M$; ~1.7% of the circulating supply according to institutional trackers). Historically, unlocks of this size can generate weakness pre/post event, then absorbed if the context remains constructive. Messari
Avalanche (AVAX): unlocking of ~1.67M AVAX on 15/8 (estimate ~0.4–0.5% supply). The impact depends on the composition of the recipients (team/investors/ecosystem) and the liquidity on the exchanges during the hours of the event. Binancetheblockbeats.info
Expected impact: Medium. Peaks of volatility expected in the 24–48h around the dates; a favorable macro context can mitigate the supply pressure.
5) FTX: record date on 15/8; payments expected from 30/9
What happens: FTX Trading Ltd. and FTX Recovery Trust have set August 15, 2025 as the record date for the next round of distributions, with disbursement expected by September 30, 2025. The reduction of the Disputed Claims Reserve has freed up ~$1.9 billion to be allocated to eligible creditors (Class 5/6, etc.). Provider: BitGo, Kraken, Payoneer. PR Newswiresupport.ftx.com
Expected impact: Medium. Effect on confidence and possible net liquidity inflow later (Q3-Q4) when the funds actually reach the creditors; no immediate flow impact this week (technical deadline). For creditors: pay attention to KYC/tax form/onboarding by the record date. support.ftx.com
6) Conference radar – ETHGlobal Pragma (NYC, 14/8) and BTCHEL (Helsinki, 15–16/8)
Pragma New York (ETHGlobal), August 14: single-track summit oriented towards Web3 builders and leaders, focusing on L2, ZK, security, and Ethereum roadmap. Direct price impact low, but useful for capturing trends and possible technical announcements. ethglobal.com
BTCHEL, August 15–16: first major Bitcoin conference in the Nordic countries (Helsinki, Korjaamo); agenda with talks, panels, and workshops (mining, community, development). Direct impact low, networking/sentiment value. btchel.com
Weekend Outlook
The crossroads remain CPI/PPI: a disinflationary scenario would support the resilience of BTC at psychological levels and leave room for selective outperformance of altcoins (primarily privacy/ZK and ETF-driven narratives). Conversely, “hot” data would favor tactical risk-off with negative beta on the alts. The Glacier Drop keeps the spotlight on Cardano, while the unlocks (APT/AVAX) can create volatility windows exploitable by short-term operators. The FTX chapter is positive for sentiment, but with a delayed effect on flows. Base case: cautious-constructive bias if the macro collaborates; otherwise, likely consolidation.
FAQ
When do CPI and PPI come out this week?
CPI on Tuesday, August 12 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC; 14:30 CEST). PPI on Thursday, August 14 at the same time. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Who can request the Midnight airdrop tokens?
Eligible addresses on ADA, BTC, ETH, XRPL, SOL, BNB, AVAX, BAT, with claim via official portal; window 60 days (08/05–10/04). Midnight Network
How much do the unlocks of Aptos and Avalanche weigh?
Aptos ~11.3M APT (about ~1.7% circulating); Avalanche ~1.67M AVAX (~0.4–0.5%). Potentially short-term bear impact, often absorbed if the context is favorable. MessariBinance
