What the capture of Chinese soldiers in Ukraine tells us about the war’s progress
Credit: X/@ZelenskyyUa
The war in Ukraine is now partly a battle for the attention of the White House.
In such circumstances, the capture of Chinese citizens on the battlefield is a boost to Kyiv and Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president.
Mr Zelensky wasted little time in casting the men as proof that “one more” nation – China – had joined the war against his country.
However, the truth may be more mundane – that these men are part of ragtag mercenary forces hoovered up by Moscow’s meat-hungry armed forces.
Nevertheless, their presence should complicate the Trump administration’s desire to look beyond Ukraine to what it sees as a looming, generational clash with communist China.
At the end of last month, Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, distributed an internal memo reorienting the US military towards deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan – and preparing it to win a potential conflict with Beijing.
Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, has wasted little time in capitalising on the capture of the two Chinese men – SERGEY DOLZHENKO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, has claimed that the actions of Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, will only end up being a small chapter in the history of the 21st century, with the rest taken up by America’s titanic contest with China.
It is no wonder that Mr Zelensky, in trying to win back the fading support of the US, will do everything he can to argue the two theatres cannot be so easily separated.
However, the sight of Chinese men fighting for Russia in Ukraine is not something new.
About a month ago, two alleged Chinese mercenaries were filmed scrawling graffiti over the walls of what was claimed to be an abandoned building.
They were seen wearing Russian-issued tactical gear and sporting the same white tactical recognition markings used by Moscow’s invasion force.
Credit: @TGTM_Official
However, this is not evidence of a state-sanctioned deployment by China.
Russia is known to have recruited mercenaries from around the world to fuel its fight to seize control of Ukraine.
Many have come from Cuba, India, Yemen and several African countries, attracted by promises of significant cash incentives.
Kyiv also relies on volunteers, including from Britain, the US and France, to fill its ranks. However, it does not employ mercenaries.
Putin has turned a blind eye to foreign nationals joining the Kremlin’s forces as he seeks to limit the exposure of his countrymen to the brutality of his invasion.
This is partly because he wants to avoid a repeat of the uprising by Soviet mothers who were credited with forcing Russia’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in the 1980s amid unhappiness over the death toll following a decade of fighting.
More than 900,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in Ukraine since Putin ordered his forces across the border more than three years ago.
With Moscow’s men still on the offensive, the Kremlin constantly needs to find more to hurl into the meat grinder in exchange for its limited gains.
The only regular troops known to be deployed alongside Russian forces are from North Korea.
Pyongyang sent more than 11,000 men to assist Moscow as part of a security pact between the two rogue states.
The soldiers were used by the Kremlin to dislodge Ukraine’s foothold in the Russian region of Kursk.
More than 5,000 North Koreans were killed or wounded in that mission, Western officials said. However, the troops have not operated inside Ukraine.
Before the troop deployment, Pyongyang sent shipments of artillery ammunition and ballistic missiles to help Russia’s war effort.
In contrast, China has yet to send a single bullet in support of Russia’s invasion, according to Western officials.
That makes it highly unlikely that Beijing is willing to sanction the deployment of its own troops alongside Russians.
“We’re not seeing evidence of state sponsorship here,” a Western official said.
While claims that captured soldiers could be evidence of Chinese involvement are probably wide of the mark, Beijing is not innocent.
Western officials have indicated that there is significant evidence that demonstrates China has almost single-handedly kept Russia’s battle-stricken defence industry afloat with supplies of precision machine tools and hi-tech components.
For the Ukrainian president, it is also another example that proves to Donald Trump that Putin is not ready for peace and is stringing along the American’s attempts to broker a ceasefire.