Long-range predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have arrived for the winter season in 2025-2026.
The NOAA makes three-month outlook predictions for the entire nation months in advance, including the probability of each prediction. The organization’s December 2025-February 2026 predictions were issued in mid-July. Additionally, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has published an initial look at some of its forecasts for this winter, though specific details have yet to be issued.
Here’s what NOAA says about this winter in North Carolina and countrywide, plus what we know about the Old Farmer’s Almanac predictions, the timing of seasonal changes, and more.
Will it be a cold winter in NC? In the U.S.? NOAA predictions for winter 2025
NOAA predicts above-normal temperatures in the south and up the Eastern Coast between December 2025 and February 2026. This includes all of NC, with a 33-40% probability of above normal temperatures this winter.
The NOAA seasonal temperature outlook for winter 2025-2026.
Below-average precipitation is predicted in the lower southern states, including most of NC. Parts of WNC, however, may see near-normal precipitation. These predictions are made with 33-50% probability based on the region of NC, according to NOAA.
The NOAA seasonal precipitation outlook for winter 2025-2026.
Old Farmer’s Almanac predictions for winter 2025
The Old Farmer’s Almanac teased its 2025-2026 winter forecast, giving readers an idea of what’s to come in the long range. The full forecast will likely drop in several weeks, but many factors are leading to what could be a warmer-than-average winter this year.
The Almanac cites several early signs of what’s to come, including the peak in solar activity that has historically contributed to milder winters, the fading of La Niña into neutral conditions, which could lead to shaky jet streams and temperature patterns, and the possibility of a “wavy” polar vortex. This could send bursts of frigid air and snow to the southeastern states.
When is the first day of fall?
The first day of fall 2025 is Monday, Sept. 22, 2025, in the Northern Hemisphere, which is marked by the autumnal equinox.
When is the first day of winter?
The first day of winter 2025 is Sunday, Dec. 21, 2025, in the Northern Hemisphere, which is marked by the winter solstice.
Lori Comstock, USA TODAY NETWORK, contributed to this report.
Iris Seaton is the trending news reporter for the Asheville Citizen Times, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at iseaton@citizentimes.com.
This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: Will it be a cold winter in NC? In the U.S.? NOAA predictions
