In the past, all the grandi bullrun di Bitcoin have also been characterized by the presence of an altseason.
Instead, in the current cycle, a true altcoin season has not yet been seen, so much so that some are beginning to doubt that one might arrive by the end of the year.
However, the situation is actually more complex than that, and it is necessary to analyze it in detail in order to truly understand it.
The past altseason
The first major bullrun of Bitcoin, the largest in terms of percentage gains, occurred in 2013.
At the time, to be honest, there were very few altcoins (Ethereum, for example, did not yet exist), with a minimal market capitalization. Despite this, the BTC dominance fell from 95% to 88%, and although this may seem small, it was actually an altseason that lasted nine months, even if it occurred in two shorter phases (two months and four months) interrupted by a brief Bitcoin season.
The lack of Ethereum in the crypto markets, however, characterized that cycle a lot, so much so that in the next cycle the strength of ETH proved to be truly remarkable.
In fact, during the great bullrun of 2017, the altseason was sensational, with Bitcoin’s dominance dropping from 85% to even less than 34%, over the course of ten months but always in two phases separated by a brief Bitcoin season, the first lasting four months, and the second lasting only one month.
During the last major bullrun, the one in 2021, there was a single true altseason, which in the span of four months brought Bitcoin’s dominance from 70% to less than 47%. There was then a subsequent mini-altseason lasting one month that brought it to 42%.
The current cycle
Starting from late December 2022, Bitcoin’s dominance seems to be almost in continuous ascent.
In other words, until today the current cycle of the crypto markets has not yet seen any true altseason.
There was only a mini-altseason lasting just two weeks in the second half of November last year.
The dominance of Bitcoin has risen to 63%, and it still seems to be growing. It might also rise for a few more months, and perhaps it could even reach 65%.
It should be remembered that Bitcoin’s dominance moves very slowly, or to be more precise, it moves with an extremely contained volatility, when compared to the prices of BTC and ETH.
Many are beginning to believe that the current cycle might not see a true altseason.
The role of Ethereum in the beginning of the altseason
An important thing to analyze is the role of the price of ETH.
Taking into consideration the trend over time of the price of Ethereum expressed in Bitcoin (ETH/BTC), it is discovered that the all-time high was reached precisely during the great altseason of 2017/2018, at 0.123 BTC.
Note that during the subsequent bear-market it plummeted to 0.016 BTC in just a year and a half, but starting from July 2020 it rose again.
However, the peak of 2021 was much lower than that of four years earlier, because it stopped at 0.088 BTC.
This already highlights how the fact that the altseason of 2021 was overall inferior to that of 2017/2018 was precisely due to Ethereum, which in 2018 managed to cause Bitcoin’s dominance to plummet to its historic low of 33%, while in 2021 it only managed to bring it down slightly below 40%, moreover only during the subsequent bear-market and only in anticipation of Ethereum’s transition to Proof-of-Stake.
The problem is that the role of Ethereum during the current cycle has further diminished, and significantly so, given that its price in Bitcoin has fallen below 0.019 BTC.
It should therefore not be surprising that Ethereum holders are currently being mocked by those of Bitcoin.
The possible altseason of 2025
However, the increasing escalation of geopolitical tensions could change the situation, and in particular, it could also put Bitcoin under bear pressure.
In this regard, however, it is necessary to add a couple of important pieces of evidence.
The first is that the escalation of geopolitical tensions in recent months has ended up weighing much more on altcoins than on Bitcoin (which has held up instead).
The second is that altcoins are practically never characterized by a period in which BTC performs worse than altcoins because it is in greater distress, but on the contrary by a period in which altcoins outperform Bitcoin after it has pulled them up but then stopped.
So it does not seem reasonable to expect that any difficulties concerning Bitcoin could trigger a new altseason.
However, on the other hand, it does not even seem reasonable to expect that the dominance of Bitcoin will remain so high throughout the course of 2025.
The role of altcoins in the crypto markets
Although Bitcoin is the benchmark asset of the crypto market, as well as the true dominator of this market, it actually plays a single role leaving enormous open spaces for altcoins.
A key point, especially regarding altseason, seems to be the one related to memecoin.
During the first major bullrun, the one in 2013, tokens did not yet exist, but only native cryptocurrencies of their own blockchains. At the time, the only significant memecoin was DOGE, which is the native crypto of the Dogecoin blockchain.
The absence of Ethereum most likely played a key role precisely because it did not allow the proliferation of memecoins.
Instead, during the subsequent great bullrun, that of 2017, the crypto market boom was characterized by the boom of ICOs, or market placements of new tokens created largely on Ethereum itself.
The last great bullrun, the one of 2021, was also characterized by something similar, but mainly related to memecoin like Shiba Inu (which was a token on Ethereum).
Now, however, Solana has taken over from Ethereum as the most successful blockchain for memecoins, and this may have changed the game. It is possible, however, that it will always be the new tokens that will attract the most capital towards altcoins in the event of an altseason, and this could always happen at any moment.
Therefore, it is not at all possible to exclude that even in 2025 there could be a new altseason.
