Every trucker knows when the freight slows down—you don’t need a chart to feel it in your wallet. But if you’re a small carrier trying to make sense of why your phone’s not ringing and your loads are paying pennies, you need to understand what’s coming down the pipe.
One word: tariffs.
Yeah, I know. It sounds like some high-level economic policy that’s supposed to only affect Wall Street or politicians yelling on TV. But let me break this down real simple—tariffs choke the pipeline before the freight ever reaches your load board. And the newest waves hitting U.S.–China trade are setting up another freight drought for the back half of 2025.
Before you dismiss this as more government noise, let’s walk through it. Because if you’re dispatching five trucks, or you’re an owner-op grinding your way toward that second truck, you need to understand how international policy just became your biggest domestic problem.
A tariff is basically a tax slapped on goods coming into the country. Let’s say Caterpillar is importing parts from China to build excavators in Georgia. If there’s a 50% tariff on those steel parts, their costs go up—a lot. What do they do? Delay the order. Maybe cancel it. Maybe source somewhere else. But here’s what they don’t do: ship it.
And when it doesn’t get shipped? That’s one less load for you.
You see, trucking is downstream of everything. When tariffs hit imports, they don’t just hit some factory’s profits—they start shrinking the ocean containers hitting West Coast ports. That means less freight heading to the rail yards. Less freight hitting distribution centers. Less outbound tenders being offered on the load board.
It’s not just theory. Let’s get into what the charts are showing us right now.
(Source: SONAR Outbound Tender Volume Index. OTVI.USA. The Outbound Tender Volume Index has hovered in the 10,000–10,500 range all year, showing that freight demand isn’t growing meaningfully—despite bankruptcies and exits from the market. That’s a red flag for anyone betting on a Q4 volume rescue.)
The OTVI tracks how much contracted freight is being offered by shippers. Think of this as how many invitations to bid are being sent to carriers. And right now? It’s 10,261.28, trending flat and shaky.
Now look at the trendline. Notice how it’s been wobbling around the 10,000 mark all year? That’s not enough to support all the capacity out there. And the volatility? That’s tied to inventory pullbacks, tariff fears, and retailers playing defense on every shipment.
We haven’t seen a reliable bounce since June—and guess what happened then? Retailers rushed some orders forward before tariff escalation kicked in again.
(Source: SONAR Inbound Ocean TEU Volume Index. IOTI.USA. Container imports have been on a downward trend since peaking earlier this summer. When ports slow down, truckload freight feels it weeks later. Fewer TEUs hitting the coastlines means fewer loads to chase in the interior.)
This one’s even more important for forecasting. The IOTI tracks inbound container volumes at U.S. ports. Right now? We’re sitting at 1,822.33, and the curve is trending down hard.
That’s the leading indicator for what kind of freight we’ll have in the next 30–60 days. If it’s not coming off the boat, it’s not hitting warehouses. And if it’s not hitting warehouses, it’s not getting tendered. It’s that simple.
Retailers already told us—they’re expecting 5.6% less imports this year compared to last year. That doesn’t sound huge, until you realize most of those import shipments are LTL and TL opportunities for domestic carriers.
Now let’s talk about you.
You’re not a mega carrier. You don’t have 90-day payment terms or a team of analysts watching global trade. You’re a two-truck operation running I-40 and trying to keep your drivers paid and fuel covered.
Here’s why tariffs crush small fleets:
You rely more on spot market freight, which dries up faster when volumes drop.
You don’t have long-term contracts, so when retailers cancel shipments, you feel it first.
Your margins are thin, so one slow week eats into your next week’s plan.
And guess what else happens during tariff season?
Now you’re not just fighting low volumes—you’re fighting mega fleets dumping their excess capacity into your space.
Let’s get out of the charts and into real life:
And here’s the kicker—even if tariffs get reversed, the recovery is slow. Once shippers lose confidence, they shift buying habits. They may look at other countries. They hold back longer.
(Source: SONAR. 5 Year Truckload Average. NTI.USA)
Yeah, but for how long? And at what rate?
Right now, some lanes are still moving, but rates are thin and margins are shrinking. That’s not strength—that’s overcapacity surviving off scraps.
If your revenue per truck per week has dipped below $4,000, and your fuel and insurance haven’t dropped with it, it’s very possible that you are not profitable.
And let’s not forget: Q4 is supposed to be the peak season. If we’re barely breaking 10,000 OTVI now, where are we going when holiday freight softens?
The current administration has hinted at renewing or expanding certain tariff packages, including the Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods. And don’t forget the steel and aluminum tariffs that now cover 400+ product types—a decision that drove up equipment costs and raw materials across the board.
Even though a few 90-day suspensions have paused tariff hikes, the damage has already been done. Retailers have restructured supply chains. Shippers have delayed launches. And domestic manufacturers are still cautious.
We’re not here to sugarcoat it. This is a very potential reality:
If tariffs continue to escalate, we’re looking at Q4 2025 being one of the weakest peak seasons since 2019. OTVI may not break above 10,600. IOTI may fall below 1,700. That puts many small fleets and owner-ops at risk of running below breakeven for 10–12 consecutive weeks.
If you’re banking on a holiday rebound, think again.
Tariffs may sound like someone else’s problem—but they’re already sitting in your backseat, whispering into your fuel gauge.
And here’s the hard truth: If you don’t adapt, tariffs won’t just squeeze your weeks upcoming. They’ll squeeze you out of the game.
But if you stay sharp, track the right data, and move like a business owner—not just a driver—you’ll be one of the few that not only survives, but grows when the dust settles.
This ain’t about politics. This is about being realistic.
And in trucking, those who position early… last longest.
